Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey bodes well for growth The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will continue to perform well. And there is little sign that the uncertainty about the Italian Government’s policies... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone PMI comes as something of a disappointment but the index is still consistent with a decent pace of GDP growth at the start of Q3. Accordingly, the ECB is likely to push... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office occupier markets strong, but growth moderating European office markets have started the year in buoyant mood, with take-up reaching a post-crisis high, vacancy rates falling and rents climbing by around 2.5%. Nevertheless, as we outlined at the... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB lagging behind in the monetary tightening cycle Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher Italian bond yields increase risks for property The recent spike in Italian government bond yields is likely to be sustained for the foreseeable future, increasing the risk of a sharper re-pricing for Italian commercial property than we are... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the EU’s surplus in a global context The EU’s and, particularly, Germany’s trade practices have been criticised heavily by President Trump, prompting him in early July to label the trade bloc “as bad as China”. However, from a global... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Optimistic but cautious Having announced last month that asset purchases will end in December, the ECB is unlikely to make any policy changes at its July meeting. We doubt that President Draghi will offer more explicit... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland is faring better than GDP data suggest Ireland’s GDP contracted in Q1, but this tells us next to nothing about the underlying state of the economy. Other indicators are much more encouraging and, despite some big risks to the outlook, we... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Wage differentials support CEE industrial border markets Growing occupier demand for industrial units close to the German and Austrian borders will offset the slower economic growth that we are expecting in the next few years in the CEE markets. This will... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks still in the minority In an otherwise quiet week, the main economic news was the publication of the minutes of June’s ECB meeting. They showed that members of the Governing Council “widely agreed” to update their forward... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production offered welcome reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 did not mark the start of a downward trend. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update High income returns positive for Brussels offices A positive economic outlook for Belgium and a shortage of available Grade A stock bode well for office rents in Brussels. Foreign investors, in particular, are increasing exposure to the market as it... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jul.), French & Italian Ind. Prod. (May) The further decline in German ZEW investor sentiment seems to reflect concerns about the impact of possible protectionist measures. But May’s industrial production data for France and Italy support... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German industry rebounds, but are politics a threat? Immigration has remained very high up the political agenda this week, and while EU leaders reached a compromise on Monday, this is not a closed issue and tensions may well flare up again. Meanwhile... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
