Global Markets Update ECB purchases of Italian bonds might rise in October We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Contagion from Italy likely to remain limited The sell-off in Italian bonds continued this week, and although we think that Italian yields have further to rise, we suspect that contagion will remain limited. Meanwhile, data released this week for... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t appear unsustainably high There is a widely-held view that the prices of many financial assets are bound to come crashing down sooner or later, because their valuations have risen far above the long-run averages to which they... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Little movement in office & retail yields The second quarter of the year saw further signs that the euro-zone property market upswing is close to an end. With a 5% annual fall in investment, activity is now starting to track sideways on a... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Limited yield falls and rental growth this quarter Economic growth recovered somewhat in Western Europe, but slowed further in emerging Europe in Q2. Occupier activity has still been strong, but rates of rental growth slowed across the board... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected expansions in Germany and the Netherlands in Q2 provide some hope that the euro-zone economy may have grown more strongly in Q2 than initially estimated. This should... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worries over Turkey and Italy hit European markets While worries about the exposure of euro-zone lenders to Turkey weighed on the euro and European banking stocks on Friday, the economic spillovers to the region should be fairly modest. Meanwhile... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity has peaked Property investment fell back sharply in Q2, keeping our prediction of an annual slowdown in activity firmly on track. Even so, investment will be cooling from levels which are high by historical... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer slowdown should prove temporary Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.3% q/q dealt a blow to hopes that the softness of growth in the first quarter would be a one-off. While no breakdown is available yet, timely data from France and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market implications of a “no deal” Brexit While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s industrial production and trade figures suggest that the previously booming German economy is already feeling the effects of trade tensions. But with the domestic economy in good shape and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Further slowdown in Q2, but surveys bode well Disappointing euro-zone Q2 GDP data published this week have made our forecast of a 2.2% rise in GDP this year look optimistic. But July’s business surveys were more upbeat and suggest that a marked... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU and US still a long way from a trade deal The easing of trade tensions between the US and EU this week reduces the risk that the US will soon increase tariffs on EU cars, but it still leaves us a long way from any action to reduce trade... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pick-up in Frankfurt office rents won’t be sustained Strong occupier demand and limited completions have boosted prime Frankfurt office rents. But with demand likely to ease and completions on the rise, this pick-up in rental growth is unlikely to last... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) left it still pointing to strong German GDP growth, which will encourage the ECB to maintain a fairly optimistic tone when it meets... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
