Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed still going it (almost) alone We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will euro-zone office yields still rise in 2019? Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB focused on wage growth, not industrial slowdown Despite the recent softening of the economic data, on Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a positive tone on the outlook for GDP growth and inflation. And the Q2 labour cost data, published... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging European yields can buck the trend in 2019 With property yields in emerging Europe sitting above their pre-crisis lows and those in central Europe looking relatively well-placed on our valuation measure, we think that yields in the region can... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Export growth slowdown looks set to persist After providing a big boost to GDP growth last year, net exports were a drag on growth in the first half of 2018. This does not look like a temporary response to heightened trade tensions. Instead, it... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak activity data not a sign of things to come The latest official data on activity in the euro-zone have been fairly weak, but the timelier survey indicators paint a more positive picture. Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have fallen recently... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression all but done The pace of economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to have peaked in this cycle. At the same time, commercial property markets look to be plateauing as investment volumes track sideways and... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth, weak inflation Euro-zone data published this week showed a picture of fairly strong growth but continued subdued inflationary pressure. In the coming years, we expect GDP growth to slow, but underlying inflation to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation shifts point to risks for Italian property Property yields ticked down only slightly again in Q2, but there were more meaningful shifts in the yields of other assets. Safe-haven markets generally saw an improvement in property valuations... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed pressing on with rate hikes, others well behind Fed officials look increasingly confident in their plans to raise interest rates twice more this year while ECB officials are on course to end their asset purchases by December. Next year, though, we... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US tariffs, Greece and Italy all pose risks Greece’s exit from its bailout on Monday was widely hailed by European policymakers as a sign of success, but its problems are far from over. Meanwhile, comments from President Trump emphasised that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
