Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to remain low in 2019 and 2020 We think that loose monetary policy and safe-haven flows will keep the German 10-year government bond yield around its current level this year and next. Yields in most other “core” countries are also... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy continues to lose momentum Data released this week suggest that the economy lost more momentum at the end of last year and that GDP growth in 2019 won’t be as good as in 2018. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What to watch out for in European property in 2019 Commercial property capital values will rise again in 2019, supported by an improved outlook for yields, which will, at a European level, edge slightly lower this year. However, a weakening economic... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could a no deal Brexit bring upside to the euro-zone? A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy kicks the can down the road This week, Italy’s Government again showed itself to be more flexible than many had anticipated. But its fiscal problems are far from over and, in our view, public debt still looks unsustainable in... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softness in bond markets pushes back yield rises Scandinavian property yields are now set to mark time in 2019 before rising from 2020, despite slowing rental growth. Copenhagen industrial is our top pick for the region. Total returns will be higher... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish as PMI confirms growth slowdown Following this week’s ECB meeting, and the latest data on economic growth in the currency union, the chance that the Bank raises interest rates next year has fallen. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Can London office and retail outperform the rest of Europe? London office and retail property are set to produce only middling performance in the next few years, when compared to Western Europe’s other major markets. We think London’s large development... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Will rental growth justify the fall in industrial yields? With all of the hype around the potential impact of online retailing on industrial occupier demand, there has been a big shift in the relative pricing of industrial assets. Although rents in the UK... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm in Italy won’t last We think that this week’s decline in Italian bond yields will be reversed before long, weighing on the economy. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that core inflation in the euro-zone edged... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
