Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish elections, new oil price forecasts Spain’s economy is performing well in the run-up to Sunday’s general election, but we expect growth there to slow. Meanwhile, although we have revised up our oil price forecasts, energy inflation... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish tone will need to be followed by action The ECB struck a moderately dovish tone at its policy meeting this week, but with economic growth still fairly slow it will need to follow its words with actions. Meanwhile, industrial production data... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.) The slight pick-up in Swiss inflation in March does not change our view that the headline rate will fall back into negative territory in mid-2019 and that core price pressures will remain extremely... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The 10-year Bund yield may be heading to zero Growing safe-haven flows in 2019 and the ECB re-starting its net asset purchases in 2020 may mean that the yields of “core” European government bonds (EGBs) fall further over the next two years. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Not yet at a turning point We don’t think the increase in euro-zone industrial production in January marks a turning point for the economy, given that the business surveys for February were weak and global demand is still... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising prime retail yields to go against the flow Near zero low risk-free rates will support Western European office and industrial pricing, despite a softer rental growth outlook. In contrast, with the retail sector also dealing with structural... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail weakness not just reserved for secondary assets The recent poor performance of “average” retail property will persist over the next few years as investors shy away from risky cash flows. However, we also expect prime high streets to underperform... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy likely to keep “core” bond yields low We are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy in most developed markets. If we are right, “core” government bond yields are likely to fall, or remain very low, this year. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recession likely to drag on Italy’s economy is unlikely to come out of recession in the first half of this year. Several temporary factors might lead to a small expansion in the second half of the year, but even if this happens... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. (Jan.19) The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Prime property valuations steady as risk aversion rises In light of the changes to our valuation weightings this quarter, many markets are closer to fair value than in our last Valuation Monitor. That said, the majority of property markets (51 out of 93)... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor End of QT unlikely to affect bond valuations much In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is deciding how and when to end its balance sheet rundown. Although some officials have indicated that it could finish... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from other surveys that despite weakness in the industrial sector, the overall economy is still growing. That said, the... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession, auto tariff threat The small rise in the composite PMI for the euro-zone, from 51.0 in January to 51.4 in February, came as a bit of a relief – especially as this was the first increase in six months. However, it leaves... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
