Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property valuations improve in Q1 Lower government bond and equity dividend yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property assets in Q1. Indeed, less than half of the 93 property markets now appear overvalued, with the... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (May) The small increase in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a welcome bit of good news. But it is not enough to fully reverse its fall in April, and does not change our view that... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU elections, more weak surveys This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Subdued rental growth sets tone for a weaker year Occupier demand is strong in all three sectors, with solid economic growth supporting expansion, although we expect this to slow through the course of the year, dampening rental growth in all sectors... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Recent drags on car sales are set to unwind Car sales in the world’s largest markets have slumped since mid-2018. In this Metals Watch we explain our forecast for sales to begin recovering later this year. 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Populists unlikely to rattle markets at EU elections We suspect that the European Parliament (EP) elections will not cause much reaction on bond markets, even if populist parties perform even better than expected. Recent elections in the EU suggest that... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German green shoots and Greek fiscal concerns This week saw further signs that the German economy regained some momentum at the end of Q1, as industrial production rose and exports picked up in March. But with the business surveys for March and... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong Q1 data probably a false dawn The rebound in euro-zone GDP growth to a respectable 0.4% q/q in the first quarter of this year has been greeted by many as proof that the economy is back on track. But we suspect that the expansion... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why bond investors shouldn’t dread the EU elections We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth lead to diminish in 2020-21 Western European office rents grew by 5.3% p.a. in 2016-18. We expect them to grow by little more than that over the next three years combined, as occupier demand slows and development completions... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy got off to a slow start to Q2. So even if GDP data for Q1, published tomorrow... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
