Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small increase in output in May does not signal the end of the Germany’s manufacturing downturn. On the contrary, it now looks almost certain that production declined in Q2 overall, contributing... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property yields be lower for longer? With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Draghi to fire the starting gun, Lagarde to run the race The latest economic data, together with the nomination of Christine Lagarde for ECB president, make us more confident in our view that the ECB will cut interest rates and re-launch QE before the year... 4th July 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vacancy set to stabilise at cyclical lows in Paris Paris office take-up is likely to drop back a little this year, but with economic growth staying steady, it’s unlikely to fall off a cliff. A fairly restricted supply outlook means that vacancy can... 4th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Jun.) While the Composite PMIs for June were flat for Spain and edged up for Italy, the overall picture remains one of weak economic growth in the second quarter. And with price pressures remaining weak... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into euro-zone core inflation The jump in euro-zone core inflation in June seems to have largely reflected temporary factors. More generally, a range of measures of underlying inflation suggest that price pressures remain subdued... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone probably slowed to a crawl in Q2 This week has seen more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum and that inflation remains a long way below target. Meanwhile, we have brought forward our forecast for the ECB to... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro looking undervalued, especially for Germany Following Mario Draghi’s more dovish comments earlier in the month, we now think the Governing Council is more willing to loosen policy further and have revised our already more-dovish-than-consensus... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Unlike bond yields, we expect equities to fall further Investors are now even more dovish that we have long been about the outlook for monetary policy in the US. As such, we doubt that Treasury yields will drop further. However, we don’t expect looser... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hints at looser policy, Italy in the dock President Draghi’s comments at this week’s press conference were consistent with our view that the ECB will eventually re-start its QE programme. Meanwhile, Italy looks set for another collision with... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Shopping centre yield spread over high streets to rise Concerns about rental growth prospects appear to be behind rising prime shopping centre yields. While we anticipate high street yields to rise also, a smaller correction will see the yield spread... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
