Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Domestic weakness to weigh on the Swedish krona It is becoming harder for the Riksbank to brush aside mounting signs of weakness in domestic demand. We expect it to turn more dovish, and the krona to weaken, over the second half of the year. 22nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss exporters exposed to the rising franc Swiss exporters are feeling the pinch from the stronger franc and we think that things will get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, having weakened in Q2, the Finnish economy is likely to remain... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB spring a surprise next week? Next week, we think that the ECB will say that interest rates will remain “at present or lower” levels at least through the middle of next year, and that it “stands ready” to re-start QE. Hints at a... 19th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Thinner yield spreads not yet a risk to Italian markets With bond yields falling, euro-zone property yield spreads have widened and remain high by historical standards. Admittedly, not all markets enjoy low bond yields, but even in Italy, where spreads... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to take the first step towards renewed stimulus Policymakers have been dropping hints for weeks that they plan to loosen monetary policy soon, and at July’s meeting they are likely to take a step in that direction by formally changing their forward... 18th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to push the boundaries of policy easing We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics... 17th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro-zone economy turning a corner? The improvement in some of the recent economic data suggests that the risk of an imminent recession is low. But it does not suggest that the economy is about to rebound. We expect growth to remain... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to try QE again Economic growth is likely to remain anaemic this year and to slow further in 2020 even if downside risks, such as a US auto tariff or no-deal Brexit, do not materialise. The downturn in the German... 16th July 2019 · 34 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divergent trends in Swedish and Norwegian growth The Norwegian economy appears to have gathered pace in Q2, but the latest data from Sweden paint an increasingly gloomy picture for domestic demand. So while the Norges Bank will continue to buck the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French growth spurt unlikely to last Data published this week suggest that France is bucking the gloomy trend; we think GDP expanded by around 0.4% q/q in Q2 whereas growth in the other three large economies slowed. But France’s growth... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account confirms dovish intentions A lot has happened since the Governing Council’s policy meeting on 6th June, so the account published today has arguably been superseded by events. But it does confirm that even five weeks ago the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q1 2019) Economic growth in Ireland appears to have slowed to little more than a crawl, which is likely to in part reflect concerns about the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit. We estimate that, if the UK left... 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) While core inflation in Sweden edged up once again in June, we expect weak domestic demand to weigh on underlying price pressures over the second half of the year and into 2020. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus catching up, but still below our Scandi view IPF Consensus office rent forecasts for 2019 were generally upgraded in their latest iteration, with central Europe seeing a particularly large rise. We also made widespread upgrades to our forecasts... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected fall in the headline Norwegian inflation rate in June is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s hawkish bias. With core price pressures still running above target, it is set to... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Democracy, same old problems New Democracy’s clear victory in Greece’s parliamentary elections yesterday will be welcomed by investors. But it will not be a game changer for the economy, not least because the government will... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
