Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Division at the Riksbank; SNB tweaks tiering system The tweaks to the SNB’s tiering system, which will make it more generous for domestic banks, give policymakers cover to cut interest rates further as and when needed. Meanwhile, we think the 25bp rate... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Other euro-zone governments unlikely to go Dutch The announcement of a sizeable fiscal stimulus by the Netherlands is unlikely to be repeated by other euro-zone governments, disappointing the ECB’s hopes that fiscal policy will provide much more... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A closer look at the SNB’s new tiering system The changes to the SNB’s tiering system, announced yesterday, are even more generous to domestic banks than they initially appear, and will help to ‘sugar the pill’ ahead of a probable rate cut. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway bucks the dovish trend for the last time This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 25bps, to 1.50%, was is in stark contrast to the rate cuts delivered by the Fed and the ECB over the past week. Nonetheless... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More generous tiering system paves way for rate cut Given that the Swiss National Bank last changed its policy stance in January 2015, this morning’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at -0.75% came as no surprise to us. But its tweak to make... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wishful thinking about German fiscal policy While far from certain, there is a growing chance that the German government announces a fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks or months. However, even if it does, we think any boost to demand would be... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector will continue to slow The euro-zone’s manufacturing downturn has dragged services growth lower this year. And with both employment and wage growth weakening, services will probably slow a little further next year. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB and Norges Bank to leave rates on hold We expect the SNB and the Norges Bank to leave their key interest rates on hold at their policy meetings next Thursday morning. Meanwhile, renewed downward pressure on the Danish krone has already... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The increase in nominal hourly labour cost growth to 2.7% in Q2 masks significant differences between countries and is partly due to a reduction in hours worked, rather than higher wages. We continue... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update DNB mirrors the ECB as the SNB watches on Having mirrored the ECB’s 10bp interest rate cut this afternoon, we now expect the Danish Nationalbank to reduce its Certificates of Deposit rate again by the end of the year. Meanwhile, although the... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Open-ended QE unlikely to reboot economy With today’s policy decision, Mario Draghi appears to have locked the ECB into QE for several years beyond his time in office. While the move was initially welcomed by financial markets, we doubt that... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB will need to revise its growth forecasts down The latest economic data suggest that the euro-zone economy will continue to grow slowly in the second half of the year, so the ECB will need to revise its forecasts down next week. We also think that... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt sustainable but will remain “junk” Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small upward revision to August’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to slow GDP growth at the start of H2. And the fall in retail sales in July suggests that consumption started Q3 on weak... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs from August indicate that the Swiss industrial sector is still feeling the pinch from the deep downturn in its German counterpart and the stronger franc, and add to the evidence... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
