Europe Chart Pack Slowing to a crawl There have been one or two positive signs in the past week or so, such as the increase in German industrial production in August. But the overall picture remains gloomy. Indeed, at face value the... 8th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The 0.3% increase in German industrial production comes as a relief, and a bit of a surprise, compared to the consensus forecast of 0.0% and our own expectation of a 1.0% fall, and given the poor... 8th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Things go from bad to worse in Sweden The sharp falls in the Swedish PMIs in September indicate that the economy contracted in Q3, while the slump in Swiss inflation in September will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-EU aircraft dispute increases trade war risks The latest data suggest that euro-zone growth will continue to slow, and the WTO’s decision to grant the US permission to raise tariffs on the EU increases the risk that the bloc is drawn into the... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will co-working trigger the next crash? There has been a dramatic expansion in the co-working office sector globally over the last five years. As these operators use a different approach to traditional landlords, this brings new risks to... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will co-working trigger the next crash? There has been a dramatic expansion in the co-working office sector globally over the last five years. As these operators use a different approach to traditional landlords, this brings new risks to... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Vehicles still driving the downturn in Germany We estimate that the direct and indirect effects of the slump in vehicle production account for around half of the downturn in German industrial production since the beginning of last year. A... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in interbank rates not due to ECB tiering Suggestions that the recent rise in interbank rates was caused by the ECB’s new tiered interest rate system are wide of the mark. Instead, the increase reflects investors’ re-evaluation of the outlook... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for Swiss GDP The latest business surveys from Switzerland indicate that the woes in Germany are posing an increasing drag on activity. We have therefore revised our forecasts for Swiss GDP growth down to just 0.5%... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) Euro-zone employment growth looks set to slow over the rest of this year, and remain subdued in 2020. So we expect wage growth to weaken too, eventually prompting the ECB to loosen policy again. 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal policy to be tighter in 2020 The giveaways to households and firms announced by French finance minister Bruno Le Maire yesterday do not alter the fact that there will be a tightening in France’s fiscal stance in 2020. Indeed, the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Debt and equity availability will keep yields falling A further downgrade to the euro-zone growth outlook means that additional monetary loosening is on the cards. While this doesn’t substantially shift our expectations for property yields over the next... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Do policy splits on the ECB matter? Splits in the Governing Council will make life difficult for Christine Lagarde when she takes over the ECB presidency in November, but we still expect further policy easing to be agreed next year... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small increase in the headline Ifo Business Climate Index for September leaves it at a very low level and does not alter the fact that Germany seems to have entered recession in Q3. Moreover, the... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI supports our view that economic growth in the currency union has slowed in Q3. And with no sign that core inflation is rising, and the ECB’s latest... 23rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Retail yields facing an uptick Our new forecasts reflect Scandinavian prime office yields falling in 2020 and into 2021, on the back of our lower bond yield profile. But retail property in the region faces slight yield rises as... 20th September 2019 · 35 mins read
