Europe Economics Update Greece reforms: progress but more to be done In its first five months in office Greece’s new government has implemented a range of tax cuts that should support the economy and has made a start with some structural reforms. But we are sceptical... 26th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s Ifo Business Climate Index suggests that Q3’s small increase in German GDP was not the beginning of a recovery. We think that the economy will contract in the coming quarters. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ‘Booming’ Swiss IP; GDP data to show slower growth The 8% y/y increase in Swiss industrial production in Q3 masked a “two speed” sector, in which pharmaceutical production is trending up but German-facing firms are struggling. Meanwhile, after a... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy inaction will delay euro-zone recovery This week, Christine Lagarde’s first speech as ECB president and the account of October’s policy meeting suggested that monetary policy will be on autopilot for some time. There seems to be little... 22nd November 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still some upside for German prime industrial rents While the manufacturing downturn has not helped the industrial sector in Germany at a national level, growing e-commerce means that prime industrial rents will still muster some growth over the next... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) & German GDP (Q3) The small decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI for November confirms that the economy is still struggling. One silver lining is that the pace at which German industrial output is contracting appears... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Only small fiscal stimulus for the euro-zone next year Calls for much looser fiscal policy in the euro-zone are falling on deaf ears. While the Netherlands and Germany have set out fiscal stimuli for 2020, each has past form for running tighter policy... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Majority of European markets look fairly valued Lower government bond yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property markets for the third consecutive quarter. Less than one fifth of markets look overvalued, with more than half of... 21st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3 2019) The jump in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q3 was skewed by base effects and masks weakness in those sectors most exposed to Germany. As Germany’s industrial recession looks set to drag... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Low rates supportive of further yield compression Despite the softness in economic activity, occupier demand generally held up in Q3. And while there are signs that the cyclical slowdown in the euro-zone is starting to hit CEE markets, given their... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank’s resolve to be tested next year The recent downward revisions to Sweden’s unemployment rate will no doubt be interpreted by the Riksbank as justification for its plan to raise the repo rate out of negative territory in December. But... 15th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Domestic demand fading as main driver of growth Domestic demand appears to have been the main driver of euro-zone GDP growth in Q3 but this looks set to fade as employment growth slows. Indeed, the first surveys for November next week are likely to... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) Despite October’s increase in CPIF inflation, underlying inflation in Sweden remains below target and serves as proof that the economy is not ready for the Riksbank’s planned rate hike in December... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to stagnation in Italy The latest activity and confidence indicators point to continued near-stagnation in the Italian economy. While household consumption is likely to keep growing, prospects for investment and exports are... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
