Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic activity still losing momentum Hopes that the euro-zone is turning a corner look premature. The latest activity data have been disappointing, with retail sales falling in October and national data pointing to another decline in... 10th December 2019 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus The lessons from negative interest rates so far There is little evidence that negative interest rates have succeeded in boosting economic growth or inflation expectations. But equally, they do not seem to have done much harm either – many of the... 9th December 2019 · 14 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Does European property still offer attractive returns? Set against other asset classes, European commercial property looks fairly valued. Our returns forecasts for 2020-23 of around 5% p.a. on an MSCI all-property basis will look relatively attractive in... 9th December 2019 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data ahead of Lagarde’s ECB debut Data released this week have reinforced our view that economic growth is likely to slow in the coming quarters. Next week, Christine Lagarde’s debut press conference will be watched closely for any... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp drop in production in October was driven by a slump in auto production and suggests that, far from bottoming out, Germany’s industrial contraction may even be getting worse. The economy... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to loosen policy before policy review is complete With little chance of any policy action at the ECB meeting next Thursday, the focus will be on how President Lagarde performs in the press conference and on the scope and timetable for the planned... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Lower yields to support capital values We expect a further slowdown in euro-zone economic growth in 2020 to weigh on rental growth. However, with interest rates set to be cut next year and remain at this low level, there isn’t likely to be... 5th December 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Slowing housing market won’t derail Spain’s economy House price inflation in Spain is now slowing but we do not envisage a slump in property prices that would derail GDP growth. After all, economic and financial conditions are supportive and there is... 5th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is the collapse of Italy’s government? Our economic forecasts for Italy are based on the assumption that the coalition government holds together, at least for the next two years. But in our view, the economic impact would be small if it... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The falls in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in November dash any hopes that the manufacturing sectors have gathered momentum in Q4. With the manufacturing recession in Germany set to rumble... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Greening the ECB, surveys still downbeat The ECB may start to pay a lot of attention to climate change under Christine Lagarde’s leadership. But for the foreseeable future it will struggle to achieve its main objective of getting inflation... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Nov.) Despite November’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), the index suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained pace in Q4. 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected rise in quarterly Swiss GDP growth in Q3 was a bit of a relief and poses upside risks to our near-term forecast. But the outcome was skewed by weather-related effects and... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece reforms: progress but more to be done In its first five months in office Greece’s new government has implemented a range of tax cuts that should support the economy and has made a start with some structural reforms. But we are sceptical... 26th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s Ifo Business Climate Index suggests that Q3’s small increase in German GDP was not the beginning of a recovery. We think that the economy will contract in the coming quarters. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
