Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Dec.) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December was revised up slightly, but taken together with the other available evidence, this still suggests that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in Q4. And Germany... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 2020 will be another disappointing year The latest data suggest that the euro-zone economy might have avoided a further slowdown in Q4 last year, adding to the evidence that growth is “bottoming out”. However, the economy seems to have... 3rd January 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy sluggish, Sweden’s woes persist The latest surveys suggest that the Swiss economy is set to carry on growing at a fairly sluggish pace in the first half of this year, while Sweden’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ troubles likely to re-emerge in 2020s The euro-zone is ending this decade in better shape than it ended the last one. But its fundamental problems have not been resolved, so we expect the region to face serious challenges in the decade to... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Predictions for the euro-zone in 2020 We think the euro-zone will continue to struggle in the first half of 2020 as Germany and Italy remain close to recession and inflation stays well below target, prompting the ECB to loosen policy... 19th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do equities suggest about euro-zone property? Although the anaemic performance of the euro-zone economy is expected to weigh on occupier demand, real estate equity markets suggest that confidence in property markets has held up. We think that... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus France labour market progress not due to reforms French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on overhauling France’s ailing labour market is long overdue. But while there are signs that the changes are starting to take effect, the labour market... 17th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rally in the Swedish krona is unlikely to last What a difference a few months make; from being the worst performing G10 currency by some margin between the start of the year and late October, the Swedish krona has risen by about 3% against the... 16th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Dec.) and Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The flash PMIs for December will disappoint those looking forward to a happier New Year. Indeed, they point to euro-zone GDP being almost flat in Q4 and a continued industrial recession. Looking... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A dove in owls clothing Christine Lagarde seems to have similar views on monetary policy to Mario Draghi. And she admitted that inflation is likely to remain below target in the medium term, and that the latest TLTRO auction... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weaker outlook for occupier demand A weaker outlook for bond yields in Scandinavia and Switzerland means that falls in office and industrial yields are likely to extend into 2021. However, with rental prospects weak and yields rising... 13th December 2019 · 33 mins read
Europe Economics Update More policy easing still likely under Lagarde While Ms Lagarde’s assessment of the outlook in today’s press conference was slightly less gloomy than Mr Draghi’s in October, this does not change our view that the ECB will loosen policy again... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the sector’s troubles are far from over. We expect the sector to remain in recession at the start of next year. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) The pick-up in Swedish inflation in November means that a rate hike by the Riksbank next week is all but guaranteed. But with surveys continuing to show that the economy is struggling, and core... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
