Europe Economics Update ECB will be forced into more drastic action Last week’s ECB decision gave it more ammunition to combat the fallout from the coronavirus, but it will not be enough. We now think the Bank will soon make an explicit commitment to keep sovereign... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up The policy landscape has changed dramatically over recent weeks and is shifting by the hour. Amid a raft of announcements in recent days, Denmark has grasped the nettle by closing schools and... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian quarantine to cause deeper downturn As a share of the population, Italy already has double the number of coronavirus cases as China, and the entire country is now in quarantine. We think that this is likely to cause its economy to... 10th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does COVID-19 mean for commercial real estate? The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy response will only cushion the blow The market slump will galvanise policymakers into action. The situation is evolving quickly but we now think there will be a fiscal stimulus of at least 1% of GDP in the euro-zone this year, and... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers edging closer to a coronavirus response It’s a very close call, but we think that the Riksbank will cut the repo rate back to -0.25% at its next scheduled rate decision on 28th April, if not before. Meanwhile, the recent rise in the Swiss... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian GDP likely to contract in Q1 and Q2 The response by policymakers, households and firms to the spread of the coronavirus looks set to take a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. We suspect that GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2, and that... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Deterioration in valuations likely to prove temporary The uptick in government and corporate bond yields in Q4, coupled with the continued decline in property yields, resulted in a deterioration in the relative valuation of commercial property markets in... 5th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Waiting for the contagion Other than a lengthening of supplier delivery times in February, there is little evidence that the shutdown in the Chinese economy has had much impact on the euro-zone economy so far. Indeed, business... 4th March 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The increase in euro-zone retail sales data in January suggests that household consumption picked up at the beginning of the year, but we suspect that spending will drop in Q2 as the Covid-19 virus... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB virus response likely to include a rate cut The ECB will need to respond to the Covid-19 virus, which has already prompted a 50bp rate cut by the Fed, but we think it will do so on its own terms. This is likely to include a 10bp deposit rate... 3rd March 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss GDP likely to contract in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP growth in Q4 provides a higher base for annual growth rates at the start of this year than we had previously assumed. Nonetheless, following the surge... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP to contract in Q2 and perhaps beyond Following the surge in Covid-19 cases over the past week, we are cutting our forecast for euro-zone economic growth to 0.5% for the year, from 0.7% previously, due to a sharp drop in household... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in Europe... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
