Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rebound in trade to boost industrial rents in ports Despite the sharp drop in GDP, the relatively small fall in world trade has meant that industrial rents in port cities held up better than expected during H1. And we think that the ongoing recovery in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) While Swiss inflation has risen since reaching a trough in June, it is likely to stay very weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the positive set of September manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What to make of recent moves in REIT prices? Recent moves in real estate equity prices suggest that there is upside risk to our forecasts for industrial property values this year. However, even the industrial sector will not be immune if rising... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Virus seals dominance of industrials Investment activity and rents have felt the impact of the virus, with the retail sector bearing the brunt. Indeed, after falling by around 2% this year, we think that Scandinavian retail rents will... 28th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Fighter jets, wolves, and immigration While Sunday’s vote on restricting freedom of movement between Switzerland and the EU seems unlikely to pass, it puts the strained relations between the Swiss government and the EU back in focus. Next... 25th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services activity falling as virus rules are tightened This week brought evidence that the economic recovery is grinding to a halt and that activity in the services sector is falling. And with the stringency of virus containment measures only going in one... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB & Norges Bank cook up no change, two ways The fact that policymakers at the SNB and the Norges Bank left policy settings unchanged this morning came as no surprise. Both banks are likely to leave policy unchanged throughout our forecast... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower recovery in values given weaker office outlook As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so... 18th September 2020 · 33 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inventories point to little inflationary pressure In contrast to the US where falling inventories may start to push up prices, euro-zone firms’ inventories suggest that near-term price pressures are weak. 16th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Remote working poses significant downside to rents As we have argued in our Global Property Focus, we think that some of the increase in remote working seen this year will become a permanent feature of working practices in office-based sectors in the... 14th September 2020 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Norway’s fading rebound a warning sign for others Given Norway’s decision to re-open its economy comparatively early, its post-lockdown experience has been watched closely for clues as to how other economies could expect to fare. The latest monthly... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank unlikely to tighten anytime soon While core inflation in Norway rose even further above the Norges Bank’s target in August, things will soon look very different as the inflationary impact of previous falls in the krone fades and goes... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.) Signs of rising domestic price pressures in Norway raise the chance of a hawkish shift by the Norges Bank at the next meeting. However, with imported price inflation set to peak soon, and services... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rents downgraded in euro-zone and CEE The falls recorded so far, most notably in the CEE region, coupled with our view that the initial recovery in retail sales in Europe has started to run out of steam, has prompted us to downgrade our... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
