Europe Economics Update Vaccines pave way to lifting of restrictions in Q2 2021 There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which... 17th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Timely data add to evidence of Q4 contraction Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine optimism but restrictions take their toll While an effective vaccine that would transform the economic outlook looks more likely than it did only a week ago, questions about how and when it will be distributed still need to be answered. So it... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update High COVID-19 cases point to long-lasting restrictions While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would a vaccine affect the economy? If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP to fall by about 3% q/q in Q4 The downside risks to our forecasts are crystallising and we now think that the euro-zone economy will contract by about 3% in Q4. The ECB looks set to loosen policy in December, and we will be... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s data show that euro-zone retail sales were coming off the boil even before many non-essential retailers were forced to shut up shop. Online spending will probably pick up again, but by... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdowns to keep inflation low The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss recovery at risk of reversal A continued surge in virus cases has forced Swiss and Nordic governments to tighten restrictions this week and there is a risk that Switzerland follows in France and Germany’s footsteps and imposes a... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3 2020) The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
