Europe Commercial Property Update Where might industrial yields fall most this year? Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Poor start to vaccine rollout poses risks to recovery A decline in GDP in Q1 now seems highly likely, but the bigger concern is that slow vaccination programmes and concerns about virus variants may delay the lifting of restrictions in Q2 and beyond... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Vaccine to drive recovery but risks remain The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle... 21st January 2021 · 35 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors in Europe moving down the risk curve Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update REITs suggest limited upside to property values Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn... 14th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fast-spreading virus, slow vaccinations The economy withstood the second lockdowns comparatively well in November and December. But rising virus numbers and the painfully slow start to the vaccination rollout mean that the region is... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity set for a muted recovery in 2021 Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK)... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key commercial property trends for 2021 Although the rollout of effective vaccines should allow economic activity to rebound in the second half of the year, we do not think that European property markets will bounce back quickly. 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
