Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hawkish Norges Bank to help push NOK higher You don’t need to be a mind reader to figure out what the Norges Bank is thinking, and it now expects to start raising interest rates in late 2021. As it happens, given the momentum in oil prices and... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Pandemic hit mild by past standards, but recovery slow Euro-zone prime property will likely get off more mildly than many expected at the start of the pandemic. We forecast another small fall in all-property capital values this year, with yields holding... 18th March 2021 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB promises more, but keeps it flexible The ECB’s policy statement this week pledges more support, but leaves plenty of room for disputes over the meanings of a “significantly higher pace” of asset purchases and “favourable” financing... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Brace yourself for a more hawkish Norges Bank We think that the Norges Bank will bring forward the projected start date of interest rate hikes next Thursday, and there is a chance that it could re-tighten macroprudential policy too. Meanwhile, we... 12th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack ECB holds the key for Swedish and Swiss yields The increases in Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian government bond yields over the past month or so have illustrated the extent to which smaller bond markets get dragged around by global conditions. As... 11th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Estimating the natural vacancy rate in European offices Given that the natural vacancy rate (NVR) provides a better gauge of office market conditions than the absolute vacancy rate, we set out to estimate the NVR across European office markets. Future... 11th March 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands to continue to outperform Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4, Final) The third estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy contracted a little in Q4 2020, driven by weaker consumer spending. Ongoing restrictions mean that another fall in GDP is likely in Q1... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Outlook for property valuations still supportive With bond and equity dividend yields trending lower, valuations improved in Q4 for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. But in Q1, given the recent bond market rout, valuations... 8th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Franc falls further; kNOcKing on the door of SEK parity The further fall in the Swiss franc this week will have caused smiles all around at the SNB, and the stage looks set for the currency to ease lower this year. The major event next week will be the ECB... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid infections, bond yields and inflation Pressure on public health services has continued to build, prompting some governments to extend their Covid restrictions until late March. Meanwhile, higher inflation and bond yields will make the ECB... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Counting the cost of the EU’s slow vaccine rollout The underwhelming vaccine rollout in Europe will probably delay the easing of restrictions and means that the best of the vaccine bounce will be pushed into Q3. That said, the planned EU-wide vaccine... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Focus The future of European natural gas pipelines Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines... 22nd February 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Temporary halt to Amsterdam office rental growth Following the decline in 2020, we think prime office rents in Amsterdam will hold steady this year. But rental growth should pick up thereafter, supported by continued growth in the information and... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
