UK Economics No need to fear as furlough enters final furlong We think that concerns about the winding up of the furlough scheme are overdone for two reasons. First, at the end of May only 2.3m people were on furlough and half of them were working at least some... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.) The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Balance sheet reduction to precede hikes in Sweden The Riksbank was always likely to maintain the status quo this morning, but against the backdrop of recent hawkish shifts by other central banks, notably the Fed, the focus was on how its thinking had... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vaccine passport no silver bullet for prime high streets Lingering restrictions on travel mean that weakness in foreign tourist spending will continue to weigh on retailers’ incomes in tourist-dependent retail markets this year. This supports our view that... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU vaccine passport won’t spark surge in tourism The EU’s digital Covid certificate, which is being launched tomorrow, will have very little impact on European tourism this year. Non-essential travel is already possible, but most adults are not... 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) After dipping below 2% in June euro-zone inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, led by higher inflation in Germany. But we think it will drop back early next year and remain low... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices to maintain lead over Lyon Tighter supply conditions and the expected smaller hit from the shift to remote working mean that we think Paris office rents will continue to outperform Lyon over the next five years. 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to stay on hold; Swiss Saturday Night Fever With the Swedish economy going great guns but little sign of inflationary trouble on the horizon, we expect the Riksbank to maintain the status quo at its policy meeting next Thursday. Otherwise, the... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s less hawkish stance relative to the Fed likely to persist With few signs the Fed’s hawkishness at its May meeting has spread to the Bank of England, we think that the downward revision to market interest rate expectations has much further to go. While we... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The further slowdown in the money supply growth in May is due to big changes during the first lockdown dropping out of the annual comparison. Money supply data will be affected by the pandemic for a... 25th June 2021 · 2 mins read
