Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Delta variant not weighing on Italian recovery Data released today confirmed that the Italian economy grew strongly in Q2, supporting our above-consensus forecast for the year as a whole. Timelier data suggest that concerns about the Delta variant... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish retail rents to rebound from next year We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the... 31st August 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) The fall in July’s net lending total was the fastest drop since last July. As investment activity remained healthy and the economic recovery remains solid, it is likely that lenders restricted further... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) After rising to a near-10-year high of 3.0% in August, we suspect that euro-zone inflation will rise even further in the coming months. But this is due to temporary forces that should fade next year... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jul.) The latest money and credit figures do little to ease mounting concerns that the resurgence in virus cases in July and so-called “pingdemic” brought the consumer recovery to a halt. 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) Mortgage approvals continued to fall back in July as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, but they remained above pre-COVID-19 levels. Timely indicators suggest that demand will be resilient even when... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys point to continued recovery The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is... 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Shortages threatening to stifle the recovery The list of anecdotal reports of labour and product shortages has grown ever longer in the past week and pose two major risks to the economy. First, that the near-term recovery will be slower than we... 27th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q2) & ETI (Aug.) The release of GDP data from Sweden this morning confirmed that the economy surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2, and we expect output to make further gains in Q3. 27th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may not agree taper until December The account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a minority of Governing Council members objected to the dovish shift in the Bank’s interest rate guidance. Partly because of this, we now think the... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
