Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to a fresh five-year high of 6.7% y/y in August and, while there are some tentative signs that price pressures have started to soften recently, we think the central bank’s... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: income growth to drive the consumer recovery We estimate that households in Poland, Czechia and Hungary have accumulated “excess” savings worth 4% of GDP so far during the pandemic and this stockpile looks set to grow further in the coming... 8th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s asset purchase pace is ripe for reduction The fact that the Swedish GDP indicator was nearly 2% above its pre-virus level in July puts a question mark over the wisdom of the Riksbank’s plan to exhaust its asset purchase envelope by end-2021... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What will happen to submarket rents after COVID-19? With more hybrid working post-pandemic, the view is that office rents will be under pressure for many years. This raises questions about which locations could be more resilient and if rents in central... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK The shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the euro-zone appears to be nowhere near as acute as in the UK. We therefore don’t expect to see a surge in drivers’ wages that would lead to... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Government leaves itself with some fiscal ammo to utilise later The net effect of today’s announcements on social care reform may provide a very small boost to GDP. But perhaps more important is that by funding more spending on social care by raising taxes, the... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) With revised data showing that the euro-zone economy performed even better than previously thought in Q2, the ECB is sure to revise up its GDP forecasts on Thursday. That said, even if it reduces the... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) The small increase in German industrial production in July merely reversed the fall in June, and left output well below normal. While the rest of the economy is now close to a full recovery, supply... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug.) The further easing in the construction PMI in August was due to materials shortages rather than any softening in demand. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property... 6th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Zurich office returns rank poorly over next five years Weak near-term rental prospects and squeezed valuations mean that we expect Swiss office returns to perform poorly in the coming years, particularly in Zurich. 6th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug.) The upgrades to the IPF Consensus views for this year still leaves them below our forecast. However, our more downbeat view on the outlook for offices because of the shift to more remote working means... 3rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly From not enough jobs to not enough workers It’s remarkable how quickly the fear keeping policymakers awake at night has shifted from there being too many people out of work to there not being enough people to fill all the vacant jobs... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
