Europe Economics Update Inflation impact of high gas prices will last into 2022 The recent surge in the prices of natural gas and coal, and therefore electricity too, has boosted energy inflation and suggests the risks to our near-term forecast for headline inflation lie to the... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July suggest that, after putting in a better-than-expected performance in Q2, the economy made a soft start to Q3. 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound looks unconvincing After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat... 10th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly More of the same Commodity markets have been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, with many prices trading in a narrow range. There are a few exceptions, most notably the prices of natural gas and coal, which... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Economic recovery enters a more challenging phase The economy is entering a more challenging phase of its recovery from the pandemic as it is having to deal with another rise in COVID-19 cases and both product and labour shortages. We think the... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) slowed down its monetary tightening cycle with a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.75% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that there may be just one... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight How long will pandemic price pressures last? Global supply problems could put some further upward pressure on inflation in the near term, but the increase in inflation experienced in the immediate wake of the COVID crisis is close to peaking and... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update How long will coal and gas prices remain sky-high? Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell for the fifth month in a row in August, and is likely to remain steady at about half the Bank’s target rate over the next six months... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The rise in COVID-19 cases and the product/labour shortages are probably behind the stalling in the UK’s economic recovery in July. With next week’s CPI release set to reveal a jump in inflation from... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
