Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial loses crown after 2021 Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office... 24th September 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (September) The third successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in September provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing steam, as supply chain difficulties persist and the surge in gas... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lat Am leads the EM tightening cycle Several EM central banks have raised interest rates in the past couple of months on the back of growing inflation concerns (including many in Latin America) and/or strong economic recoveries (parts of... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Returns to converge further ahead The economic recovery and strong investor demand are supporting the property market upturn in Scandinavia and Switzerland. However, we expect 2021 to mark the peak for returns in most markets, except... 23rd September 2021 · 18 mins read
UK Economics MPC getting closer to tightening policy While rates were left at +0.10% in an 9-0 vote and the Bank of England’s target stock of purchased assets at £895bn, today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy statement suggests that the Bank is... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers about Germany’s election The federal election in Germany on Sunday will result in a new chancellor for the first time since 2005 and opinion polls suggest that the result will be extremely close with potentially months of... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Erdogan gets his way with surprise rate cut Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) unexpectedly cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp to 18.00% today, despite the further rise in inflation in August, and we now think that further aggressive easing is... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small fall in the composite activity PMI in September indicates that the economy lost a little more momentum. But at the same time, there were clear signs that price pressures have continued to... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s PMIs suggest that the pace of recovery slowed further at the end of Q3, in part as the euro-zone economy approaches its pre-virus size but also as supply shortages continue to bite. Price... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
