UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations deteriorate as spreads narrow Compared to bonds and equities, property valuations deteriorated further in Q3. This was due to a combination of a fall in property yields on the one side and a rise in both bond and equity yields on... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q3 2021) The solid 2.1% q/q rise in Poland’s GDP in Q3 took the economy to almost 3% above its pre-pandemic level, marking one of the strongest recoveries across Europe. But capacity constraints are starting... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation surge another headwind to recovery The jump in headline inflation in Spain in October was almost entirely down to the electricity component. We do not expect this bout of higher inflation to last, but in the meantime, consumers are... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy in Israel set to lose its punch The phasing out of crisis support and strength of tax revenues have boosted Israel’s public finances and the conservative stance of last week’s budget will help to narrow the deficit towards 3% of GDP... 11th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Troubled Brexit waters ahead With speculation rising that the UK will trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the big risk is that relations between the UK and the EU sour to such an extent that parts of the whole UK... 11th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch industrial rental growth catching up with EZ A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Data point to upside, but outlook still fragile The latest real estate data came in stronger than expected. But while there have been encouraging developments, particularly in the retail sector, we think this signals a short-term boost to prospects... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Sep. & Q3) The economy regained some momentum in September, but continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from higher utility prices probably mean it will soon fizzle out. That’s one reason why we doubt... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Fossil-like Norway won’t go the way of the dinosaurs The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, will not have any discernible impact on Norway’s intention to keep pumping oil and gas over the coming decades. The irony is that Norway’s success in... 10th November 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (October) The breakdown of October’s inflation data confirms that most of the increase, from 4.1% in September to 4.6% on the HICP measure, was due to higher energy prices. We suspect that inflation will edge... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Which measure of GDP should we believe? The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation The sharp tightening of monetary policy in the region will strengthen the preference for savings, dampen lending growth and raise debt servicing costs next year. It is plausible to think that higher... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
