Europe Commercial Property Update French industrial rent prospects slip down the rankings Slowing economic growth and rising availability will hold back French industrial rental growth this year, with affordability concerns likely to be an additional drag in Paris. This will leave the... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (November 2024) The small uptick in euro-zone industrial production in November will be of little relief to the beleaguered sector. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued over the coming months and... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A guide to upcoming elections across CEE A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (2024) Preliminary GDP data for Germany suggest there is still no sign of the country exiting stagnation, with GDP down slightly in both Q4 and in 2024 as a whole. We forecast a very small cyclical recovery... 15th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE 4.7%) was due to a very sharp fall in airfares inflation, underlying... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s budget blowout: how big a risk? Poland’s public debt dynamics are more favourable than many of its peers. But the sharp widening of the budget deficit, coupled with the decision to leave austerity measures until next year and beyond... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Drop in foreign students a small risk for PBSA rents At first glance the 24% y/y drop in sponsored study visas in Q3 2024 spells bad news for PBSA rents. But the cause of that drop - new rules banning international students from bringing dependents -... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Madrid offices will continue to outperform Madrid has seen some of the region’s strongest prime office rental growth in the recent past. While the factors supporting this surge may weaken slightly over time, we think that rent and returns... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What could policymakers do in response to higher gilt yields? Our base case is that a stabilisation and eventual fall back in gilt yields will allow the government to muddle through and wait until the next fiscal event on 26th March before making any decisions... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Sanctions boost oil prices, but impact will fade away The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Commercial Property in 2025 – Do higher gilt yields augur ill? 1737644400 UK commercial property finally turned a corner in 2024 after a few painful years.
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one... 13th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update CDU Agenda 2030 won’t turn Germany around The CDU’s economic policy agenda, released today, clearly recognises the scale of Germany’s economic challenges and proposes some sensible policies to address them. But some of the measures are not... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
