Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery picks up pace The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly... 16th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2021) The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally undershot expectations and suggest that economies entered Q4 with a clear loss of momentum. With supply disruptions set to persist and... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) This labour market release is the first of two before the Bank of England’s December policy meeting and it suggests that the labour market remained tight after the furlough scheme ended. If the story... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Oct.) The much-weaker-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Israel in October was due to a sharp fall in airfares, but the big picture is that underlying inflation pressures generally remain soft. We don... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB will persist with QE and negative rates for years We expect the ECB to interpret a period of above-target inflation as “transient” even if it lasts for well over a year. Although it will end its emergency PEPP programme next March, the Bank will step... 15th November 2021 · 25 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus still underestimating impact of remote work The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) CPIF inflation rose to a 15-year high in October, although the headline rate was just half that reached in the US, for example, and the core rate remained below 2%. Policymakers won’t be losing sleep... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to continue to underperform as growth headwinds mount The GDP data released this week indicated that in Q3 households were still having a better time than businesses. But consumer spending growth will probably start to weaken before too long as higher... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of earnings expectations in US & Europe We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Would the SNB be comfortable with franc/euro parity? The persistent weakness of Swiss inflation, and the resulting trend appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, presents the SNB with a moving target when assessing when it will intervene during bouts... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid cases and inflation on the rise Inflation releases in Germany and the US this week highlighted how price pressures are still weaker in the euro-zone. Next week, we will get the full breakdown of euro-zone inflation in October, which... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The second successive monthly decline in industrial production, in September, means that production was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2. As supply-chain difficulties are likely to persist for some time... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Increase in mortgage rates to be limited Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations deteriorate as spreads narrow Compared to bonds and equities, property valuations deteriorated further in Q3. This was due to a combination of a fall in property yields on the one side and a rise in both bond and equity yields on... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
