UK Housing Market Update Will the squeeze on real incomes hit real house prices? Consumers will feel a squeeze on their finances next year as inflation and taxes rise. That will take some wind out of the housing market’s sails, but it will not cause a correction. Note: Central... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy made a strong start to Q4, but these predate the recent currency crisis and we think the economy is likely to... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office construction expected to slow further Office space under construction declined for a third consecutive quarter according to the Winter London Crane Survey, despite an uptick in new starts. Given the challenges the office sector faces, we... 10th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics The hit from “Plan B”, the MPC and better news on shortages The government’s recently-imposed “Plan B” COVID-19 restrictions mean there is a good chance that the economy contracted in December. If the pressure on the NHS increases, restrictions might be... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly How to get a job at the SNB; declining mobility Our CE Mobility Trackers for Sweden and Norway paint a downbeat picture for the consumer sector and mirror the clear downward trend seen in the euro-zone over H2 2021. So while we still expect the... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Omicron uncertainty weighs on activity in Q4 This week brought more bad news for the euro-zone economy, with the surge in cases and spread of the Omicron variant casting a shadow over services sector activity. While recent restrictions have... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation reached a 13-year high in November, mainly driven by energy inflation. But the core rate was more subdued and is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target throughout 2022. 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all before Omicron means it is touch-and-go whether it will grow a bit in December or shrink a bit. Against that background, we doubt the Bank of... 10th December 2021 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain flexibility in face of Omicron Just a day after we expect the Fed to prepare the ground for substantially tighter monetary policy in the coming years, policymakers at the ECB will probably commit to doubling their monthly APP... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Omicron to stay MPC’s hand, but won’t prevent 2022 lift off We wouldn’t completely rule it out, but we no longer expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates from 0.10% on Thursday 16 th December. We now think rates will rise to 0.25% in... 9th December 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update New variant unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant has heightened the near-term risks for both the economy and UK commercial property. The latest restrictions show that there is still considerable uncertainty, but our estimates... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike as planned, despite Omicron Omicron means that a Norges Bank rate hike next Thursday is no longer as nailed on a prospect as it once was, but we still think that policymakers will decide to raise rates to +0.50%. Meanwhile... 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Omicron poses near-term downside risk to property recovery The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023... 9th December 2021 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
