Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s crisis in four charts Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 and two big risks for 2022 A look at our forecasts for 2021 reveals more hits than misses. While the consensus thought GDP would grow by 5.4% in 2021, we forecast that it would rise by 7.5%. We don't yet have data for Q4, but... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB slightly more hawkish than expected Following a the ECB’s slightly hawkish policy shift this week, we have penciled in a rate hike for 2024 and think the chance of a 2023 lift-off has risen. The big picture, though, is that the ECB will... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates tightening amid surging inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle today with a 100bp interest rate hike, to 8.50%, and the hawkish communications reinforce the message that it will not hesitate... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to take ECB’s lead; Stoltenberg for NB? Having drawn flak from domestic banks for keeping interest rates well below zero since 2015, the SNB would surely take the chance to raise its policy rate at the earliest possibility after the ECB... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) November’s detailed inflation breakdown shows that the increase in price pressures is not just due to high energy costs and global demand-supply imbalances for durable goods. Services inflation has... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (December) The fall in the Ifo BCI for December underlines that German’s economy has been hit hard by the latest Covid wave even before the Omicron variant has taken hold. The only consolation is that... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong growth in retail sales in November feels like a bit of a consolation prize for retailers who are now once again facing a difficult Christmas in light of the rapidly worsening Omicron... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank has some catching up to do The Riksbank (along with the RBNZ) is one of the few major central banks not to have a scheduled meeting in December. But with the Fed having put its hawkish cards on the table, rate hikes by the Bank... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Interest rate lift off highlights risks While the hike in Bank Rate from 0.10% to 0.25% came a little earlier than we expected, it does not change our view that the overall rise in interest rates over the next couple of years will be modest... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to continue, but gradually reduce, QE next year The ECB confirmed today that it will reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases to €40bn by April next year. It plans to reduce them to €20bn by October and then continue as long as necessary. We... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics MPC begins lift-off but rates unlikely to soar The surprise hike in interest rates by the Bank of England today, from 0.10% to 0.25%, could just be a case of the Bank moving a bit quicker than expected, but the hawkish tone of the commentary... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail to make a comeback in 2022 With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming... 16th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT continues to defy orthodoxy in face of lira crisis Turkey’s central bank shrugged off a currency crisis, rising inflation as well as the recent hawkish turn from the Fed and remained obedient to President Erdogan by cutting its one-week repo rate by... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
