Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are clouds forming over the UK property investment outlook? With commercial property capital values stabilising and credit conditions easing, the stage was set for a decent recovery in investment this year. However, the recent rise in gilt yields has cast a... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Higher energy prices; good news on EZ consumption? Recent moves in oil and natural gas markets mean that inflation might be a bit higher this year than we previously assumed, but we still expect it to be around 2%. There have also been some tentative... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone services disinflation will resume in 2025 Services inflation in the euro-zone was stuck around 4% last year but we remain convinced that it will decline significantly in 2025. 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) December’s 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.4% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) and rounded off a disappointing Q4, with sales declining by 0.8% q/q in Q4 overall... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel after the war: what comes next? The Israeli cabinet’s decision to delay a vote on approving the ceasefire with Hamas adds a high degree of uncertainty as to whether it will take effect on Sunday, as intended. If a ceasefire can... 16th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the inflation backdrop is likely to prevent the restart of the easing cycle for some time. We don’t expect... 16th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank set for gradual loosening cycle December’s weaker-than-expected inflation outturn won’t sway Norges Bank: we still expect it to wait until March to start cutting interest rates. We suspect that it will then lower rates gradually... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2024) While the smaller-than-expected 0.1% m/m rebound in GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast +0.2% m/m) offset the 0.1% m/m decline in activity in October, it’s clear that the economy has a bit less... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 2024) December’s RICS survey suggests that the relief rally after the Budget may have started to fade at the end of last year and the recent rise in mortgage rates have finally began to weigh on housing... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Russian inflation to 9.5% y/y in December is likely to be followed by an increase to more than 10% early this year. The central bank has set a high bar for further tightening but we think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
