Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) Unemployment in the euro-zone fell again in November, and timelier data suggest that there have been further improvements since then. While there has been less of a hit to the workforce in the euro... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that the... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s in store for retail this year? An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote... 10th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Household (budgets) to feel the heat in 2022 Against a backdrop of higher inflation, a jump in utility prices and rising taxes, household budgets will come under strain in the coming months. Indeed, we are forecasting the fastest contraction in... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nationalbank getting stuck in ahead of likely rate cut Following the chunky DKK 47 billion intervention by Denmark’s Nationalbank in December to weaken the krone, we suspect that the bar for a rate cut has already been cleared comfortably. So while many... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further weakness. With the... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The construction PMI declined last month to end the year on a negative note, more than erasing the gain made in November. Despite tentative signs that they are starting to ease, we expect labour and... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Dec.) After reaching 5.0% in December, headline euro-zone inflation should fall this year as the energy component plummets. But we think that core inflation will remain around 2%. 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) Another substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in December ensured that the lender agreed with Nationwide that the rise in house prices over the 2021 calendar year was the strongest for at... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron won’t cause euro-zone to contract in Q1 Omicron will reduce economic activity in the coming weeks due to tighter restrictions, consumer caution and absenteeism. Our best guess is that economic activity in the euro-zone will decline in... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
