Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means... 20th August 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dovish rate cut by Riksbank, more to follow We think the Riksbank will follow today’s 25bp rate cut with a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year to take the policy rate to 2.75%. But we expect the terminal rate to be 2.5% which... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2024) Alongside the Riksbank’s decision to reduce the policy rate by 25bp today to 3.5%, policymakers also lowered their rate expectation for the end of this year from either 3.25% or 3.0% at the June... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the... 19th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish outperformance The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible... 16th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) After a weather disrupted Q2, July’s 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes (consensus forecast 0.6% m/m, CE forecast 0.5% m/m) was largely driven by two sectors and only partially reversed June’s 0.9%... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall While expectations for interest rates in the UK have already fallen by 40bp by end-2025 since mid-July, our projections for UK CPI inflation to remain below the 2% target for much of 2025 and 2026... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Revising up our 2024 house price forecast Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank remains hawkish Norges Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, at 4.5%, was never in doubt. However, we still suspect that continued declines in inflation will allow it to start cutting... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024) While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
