Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Auto tariffs, Black Sea ceasefire, Israel budget Hungary and Slovakia will be affected more than most if the Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% auto import tariff isn’t reversed. Elsewhere, efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risks to the upside for euro-zone net migration Net immigration to the euro-zone has been very high in recent years, and the risks are skewed towards it exceeding the European Commission’s projection of 0.3% per year over the long term. The... 28th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads Given our view that the rise in yields outside Germany will not match the recent increase in Bund yields anytime soon, we are revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads. That said, we still... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2024 Final) & Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) Today’s deluge of data confirmed that the economy was weak even before the full effects of higher business taxes are felt and that a high household saving rate continues to restrain GDP growth... 28th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Brightening prospects – more so if Ukraine war ends We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from... 27th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) Outflows from EM capital markets have eased in recent weeks as the US dollar has faltered. But a period of sustained inflows looks unlikely as President Trump presses ahead with tariff policies that... 27th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Higher interest rates weaken the recovery Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of... 27th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone money and lending growth continues to rise Data released this morning showed that euro-zone money and lending growth continued to accelerate in February, supporting the case of those at the ECB who would prefer to pause interest rate cuts in... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.75%, and we think that the scope for further interest rate cuts this year has become more limited. We had previously been forecasting... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Fiscal Event (26th Mar. 2025) Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail subsectors to see more consistent performance Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a... 26th March 2025 · 6 mins read
