Event Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond 26th November 2024, 2:30PM GMT Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose massive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a reminder that this is a very real threat to the global economic outlook. In this special briefing, our senior…
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024) Commercial property valuations improved in all sectors in Q3 as bond yields fell, with offices and retail moving into fair value territory. However, the rise in government bond yields so far in Q4... 25th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (First Round) The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (November 2024) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November left it even deeper into recessionary territory and is consistent with our view that the German economy will continue to struggle in the... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Budget measures to weaken property recovery The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over... 22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will weak activity prompt the BoE to cut rates faster? While the rebound in CPI inflation in October strengthens the case for caution at the Bank of England, the worrying news on activity recently may mean some Monetary Policy Committee members reconsider... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching? Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024) At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that households’ concerns about tax rises announced in the Budget on 30th October contributed... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s labour market sizzling Spain’s economy is outperforming the euro-zone as a whole, and the difference is also evident in the labour market, which is still tightening at a decent pace in Spain. There now appears to be little... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, suggest that analysts’ expectations for an easing cycle to start in... 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
