Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (February) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in February strengthens our view that conditions in the German economy continued to improve during Q1. While the latest escalation of Russia-Ukraine... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jan.) Public sector net borrowing was in surplus in January as the figures were flattered by the usual bump from higher income tax receipts. Nonetheless, it was a smaller surplus than the Office for Budget... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Less scope for yield falls There was a material improvement in the Scandinavian and Swiss property markets over 2021. Prime office and industrial capital value growth accelerated. And while prime retail values still declined... 21st February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel hints at lift-off in April The strength of the latest activity, labour market and inflation data prompted a shift in guidance from the Bank of Israel today in which it said that it may start a tightening cycle in the coming... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s punchy flash PMIs provide even more evidence that the economy has rebounded swiftly after the hit from Omicron. And beneath the headline numbers, there are tentative but encouraging signs... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The surge in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI in February suggests that activity is recovering well and supports our view that GDP will rise by around 0.5% q/q in Q1. There are tentative signs that... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2021) The 4.7% expansion in Russian GDP in 2021 is consistent with a marked acceleration in growth in Q4. We expect the recovery to slow this year but the backdrop of a large and positive output gap will... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property recovery moves down a gear The worst of the Omicron wave appears to have passed and we expect growth to rebound later this year, albeit weighed down by weak consumer income growth. But persistently high inflation is now set to... 18th February 2022 · 26 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s blockbuster GDP, EU funds Russia-Ukraine tensions dominated the headlines again this week and all of our research on the global implications, Ukraine's economy and the rest of the region can be found here. Meanwhile... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB consensus building on policy normalisation While Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated further still this week, the economic spillovers to the euro-zone are likely to be limited and are therefore unlikely to change the ECB’s policy assessment... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
