UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to fall and activity to slump Tight supply has supported house prices so far, but they now appear to be stalling. Demand will only deteriorate further over the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and the... 12th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen further, but may be bottoming out Commercial property valuations worsened for the sixth quarter in a row in Q2, and for all-property is now the most overvalued since late 2007. But since the end of June gilt yields have edged back and... 11th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) The RICS survey showed that weaker demand has not yet fed through to falls in prices, but sales volumes are beginning to wilt. We think it is just a matter of time before prices follow activity lower. 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Support from flexible office demand in CEE to wane Comparatively strong demand from flexible offices has helped the CEE occupier recovery from the pandemic. But a more limited flex pipeline this year means it is not likely to provide much offset to... 9th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports? An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation... 9th August 2022 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What's Danish for the "canary in the coal mine"? Denmark’s manufacturing PMI fell precipitously from 70.0 to a 27-month low of 38.0 in July. While Denmark's PMI is extremely volatile, this was its largest fall since 2008. And given that Denmark is a... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed a further rise in workloads during Q2, though sentiment for the next 12 months worsened slightly. With labour and supply shortages remaining a major concern... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.) The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Better transparency provides little respite for yields While encouraging for the property risk premium, better transparency across Europe is unlikely to provide much support for property yields given the deterioration in the economic and interest rate... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
