Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The further fall in the unemployment rate to within a whisker of the pre-pandemic rate will only encourage the Bank of England to raise interest rates on Thursday, probably from 0.50% to 0.75%... 15th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of Russia’s impending default Russia’s government appears to be heading towards a default on its foreign currency debts for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution. This won’t affect the Russian government’s ability to... 14th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Fewer workers, higher wages We think that most of the fall in the size of the UK’s labour force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic should eventually be reversed. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if this took another two... 14th March 2022 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in February is surely the final nail in the coffin for the Riksbank’s thus-far dovish stance, and lends support to our view that the Bank will... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Russian economic crisis will hit Cyprus hard Cyprus is by far the most exposed euro-zone economy to the collapse in Russia’s economy and it now looks very likely to fall into recession in the coming quarters. In this Update, we take a look at... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update EZ corporate & sovereign spreads may converge again Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Ukraine raises risk of sharper slowdown At the start of the Ukraine crisis, we felt the direct property impact would be modest, based on limited Russian ownership and capital flows. But as the conflict extends into a third week, concerns... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23 rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the ECB Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Can Russia evade sanctions on its crude exports? Even if the West bans crude imports from Russia entirely, the Iranian experience suggests that there will still be ways for Russia to get its oil onto global markets. But any workarounds would take... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The cost of living crisis and the influence of the war in Ukraine probably means that the 0.8% m/m leap in GDP in January is as good as it gets for this year. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the huge 20% m/m... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics War won’t derail the MPC’s rate hiking plans The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have worsened the already tricky mix between soaring inflation and slowing GDP growth. But we think the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is sufficiently... 10th March 2022 · 8 mins read
