Capital Daily Beware of misinterpreting the fall in UK inflation compensation A generous interpretation of the recent plunge in inflation compensation in the UK is that it has reflected confidence in the Bank of England’s commitment to tighten monetary policy by as much as it... 12th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The 1.5% m/m increase in industrial production in August was partly due to an out-sized rise in Ireland and was not enough to reverse the fall in July. All the evidence suggests that euro-zone... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Where are industrial rental prospects strongest? We think online demand will continue to be an important driver of relative rental prospects in European industrial markets as we move into the post-pandemic era. But the outlook for traditional demand... 12th October 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 100bp ECB hike on the cards; recession looks certain The account of September’s ECB meeting and the latest economic data make a 100bp rate hike by the ECB this month, which would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%, look increasingly likely. Next week... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The 0.1% monthly fall in the Halifax house price index in September echoed the message from Nationwide earlier this week that house prices have now stalled. Given the sharp rise in mortgage rates over... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recession will be deeper than most expect A recession has looked unavoidable for some time and we now think it will be deeper than most anticipate. Manufacturing output is already declining and services activity is slowing. What’s more... 6th October 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep.) The surprise increase in the construction PMI reflected an improvement on the supply side, as easing demand cut delivery times and improved contractor availability. But a slowing economy and rising... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Aug.) The 2% year-on-year decline in euro-zone retail sales in August will probably look mild by the end of the year. Measures of consumer confidence point to sales falling much further, which seems quite... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker demand to limit Paris office rent growth Falls in Paris Centre West vacancy are expected to support a further pick-up in prime office rents in the second half of the year. But this will be short-lived, with the deteriorating outlook for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property capital values set to fall by 15% Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The surprise jump in mortgage approvals in August probably reflected a rush to lock in mortgage offers as interest rates surged. There is a possibility that could be repeated next month, but... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
