Europe Economics Update Euro-zone exports will slow to a crawl Weakening GDP growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners – and a slump in Russia’s economy – mean that the currency union’s exports look set to grow very slowly this year. 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has Prague industrial pricing gone too far? The strength of Prague industrial performance last year exceeded expectations but also left valuations looking highly stretched. While there are risks stemming from trade links with Russia, we think... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q4 Final) The leap in inflation was behind the fall in real household disposable incomes in Q4 of last year. But it is encouraging that households appear willing to reduce their saving rate in order to carry on... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) The acceleration in house price growth to an 18-year high of 14.3% will add to concerns that the pandemic housing market boom is getting out of hand. With mortgage rates rising, house price inflation... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t wait much longer to start rate hikes With the Ukraine war and pandemic-related prices pressures still much stronger than anticipated, we think the ECB will not want to wait much longer before beginning to raise interest rates. Our new... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Benefits of buying over renting wane While buying a home is likely to remain a better option than renting, despite rising mortgage rates, the decision will become more finely balanced. That will mean some prospective first-time buyers... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (March) After a further huge jump in March, German inflation is likely to average at least 7% this year, and there are plenty of upside risks, not least the threat of power shortages. With price pressures... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) The European Commission business and consumer survey for March is consistent with our view that economic growth will be slower than most anticipate this year while inflation will overshoot... 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators unsurprisingly fell in most countries in March amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine and there were further large increases in price pressures on the back of... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The fiscal cost of the Ukraine war We estimate that euro-zone governments’ fiscal deficits will be around 1% higher than expected this year, as a result of the war in Ukraine, mostly due to government subsidies for energy, support for... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Financial conditions as tight as after the Brexit vote The war in Ukraine has contributed to a tightening in financial conditions that will contribute to weaker GDP growth for the rest of this year and next year. Admittedly, a lot of the initial plunges... 29th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property eased further in February, though it remained in positive territory. We expect lending trends to remain fairly subdued as both economic and sector specific challenges loom over... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
