UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Mar.) The continued strength of the construction PMI in March suggests that activity in the sector increased despite ongoing headwinds from supply constraints and cost inflation. The rise in new orders... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen’s chances of victory are increasing The chances of right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency later this month appear to have risen sharply over the past couple of weeks. A victory for Le Pen would almost... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s final euro-zone PMI surveys confirmed that output expectations fell sharply, with Germany experiencing the biggest drop. Meanwhile, price pressures remain intense across the currency union... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam and Rotterdam retail to trail With cyclical pandemic effects fading, the backdrop has improved for Dutch retail. However, having been hardest hit in 2020-21, the structural legacy of COVID-19 and higher economic barriers to... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Valuations are most stretched in southern regions Despite strong house price growth across the country over the past two years, including in regions that had lagged behind, valuations are most stretched in the usual places. As a result, house prices... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp rise to reach 61.1% y/y in March and it is likely to rise a bit further over the coming months. But there is still little sign that the central... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory Optimism about the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine came and went this week and, given the complexity of the issues at stake, it is likely to be some time yet before a breakthrough in talks is... 1st April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What Russia’s exclusion means for MSCI’s EM EMEA Index Even though the ejection of Russia from the MSCI EM EMEA Index has changed its country and sector composition, we doubt that this will meaningfully change how it tends to behave. Our forecasts for... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB cannot ignore surging inflation for long With euro-zone inflation having jumped to 7.5% in March it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will accelerate its plans to tighten monetary policy. We now think it will begin raising rates as soon... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hold the press! SNB to join the hiking party this year The fact that we expect the ECB to hike interest rates sooner and faster than we previously anticipated shifts the goalposts for the SNB and, after a prolonged period of policy hibernation, brings... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Real income hit and recession risk There are two reasons why we are not expecting the fall in real incomes triggered by the rise in a host of prices and taxes from today to lead to a recession. First, further rises in employment and... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.) With euro-zone inflation rising even further above the ECB’s forecast, and likely to remain very high for the rest of the year, we think it won’t be long before the Bank starts raising interest rates. 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the London retail premium be reasserted? The rental growth premium enjoyed by Central London shops has disappeared in the pandemic. And we don’t expect it to reopen, as lower footfall in the capital, the slow recovery in tourist arrivals and... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Mar.) Swiss inflation rose further above the SNB’s definition of price stability in March, and higher commodity prices and continued supply problems will keep it there for most of this year. Given the... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slows tightening, but more on the horizon The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the third consecutive month today with a 50bp rate hike to 5.00%, but hawkish communications after the meeting suggest that... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: what’s at stake? Fidesz is looking the most likely to retain power in Hungary’s election this weekend, which will pave the way for four more years of tensions with the EU over the rule of law and raise the likelihood... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
