Europe Data Response EC Survey and Spain HICP (November) The small increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November suggests that prospects for the euro-zone economy may no longer be deteriorating. We still expect a recession, but it is... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.) Falling capital values have not yet deterred commercial property investors, with net lending to property increasing for the second month in a row in October. Bargain hunters may have given lending a... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Rocketing mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage approvals in October. While quoted mortgage rates have peaked they are unlikely to fall much below 5% next year, keeping the cost of buying... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK house prices go over the edge – how far will they fall? 1669888800 Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and Andrew Wishart, who leads our UK housing coverage, held a briefing on the shape of the coming downturn i
Europe Economics Weekly 75bp hike still on the table, QT talk intensifying Comments by ECB officials suggest that a slowdown in the pace of tightening, from a 75bp to a 50bp hike, still looks likely in December. But it’s not yet a done deal, with some officials seemingly... 25th November 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly High migration, but low labour force The most striking thing about the record rise in net migration in the year to June 2022 is that it has not prevented the decline in the labour force. Without the rise in net migration, the labour... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE losses add pressure on the public finances The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus view of 2023 office rents is too optimistic The latest IPF Consensus survey showed a significant upgrade to 2022 European office rent growth expectations, largely due to strong rent outturns in Q2 and Q3 this year. A slowdown is expected in... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4. 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update BTL investors face severe financial squeeze The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
