Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices will fall in 2023 and 2024 Our new, higher, interest rate forecasts mean that we now expect house prices to fall marginally in 2023 and 2024. While there are risks on both sides, our base case is that prices drop by 5% overall... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Mar.) Total borrowing for the 2021/22 fiscal year overshot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March 2022 forecast by some £24bn, rounding out the third-worst year for the public finances on record... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Three key calls on the euro-zone In our latest European Economic Outlook, we set out three non-consensus forecasts for the euro-zone. First, we think inflation will overshoot expectations this year. Second, the hit that this will... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (April) The Ifo survey for April was a little stronger than we had expected and suggests that the services sector in particular is growing rapidly. But the index is still well below its pre-Ukraine war levels... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron 2.0: pension reform and cost of living in focus The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron gives him five more years to improve France’s economic potential and its public finances, with pension reform and the green transition central to... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom Comments from Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina this week underline the view that the most acute phase of Russia's crisis may have passed and that interest rates are likely to fall... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weak economy won’t prevent further bond market sell-off The downbeat news on the UK economy this week did not stop the 10-year gilt yield rising further to its highest level since November 2015. And with CPI inflation set to climb further, perhaps to a... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike With several members of the ECB Governing Council coming out in favour of a July rate hike this week we are feeling more confident in our forecast that the Bank will raise its deposit rate to +0.25%... 22nd April 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail yield compression surprises in March The latest monthly MSCI figures indicate that commercial property is holding up well. Rental growth rose further in March, while annual total returns matched July 2010 levels, which were the highest... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Salmon-omics; Riksbank set to hike We expect the Riksbank to raise the repo rate by 25bps, to +0.25%, next week. But whereas some central banks – notably the US Fed – are gearing up for aggressive tightening cycles, the comparatively... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The fall in the composite PMI in April suggests GDP growth has continued to slow as the cost of living crisis has intensified. But economic activity doesn’t appear to be collapsing. And, beneath the... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
