UK Economics Weekly BoE focus will shift from pace of rate hikes to level of rates The news that higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy will at some point soon prompt the Bank of England to start thinking more about the appropriate level of interest rates rather... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tide turning or false dawn? The first fall in inflation for seventeen months suggests that the headline rate may now have peaked. However, this is far from certain, and in any case core inflation did not fall and is likely to... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Have we hit peak inflation? There is a good chance that CPI inflation has peaked or will peak before the end of the year. There are even some signs that inflation is becoming less persistent. This may contribute to the Bank of... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices start to fall: your questions answered Following the Nationwide data showing a larger-than-expected fall in house prices in November, we hosted an online Drop-In on 1st December to discuss how far prices could fall and what the downturn... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: US vs euro-zone – A tale of two inflation cycles 1670338800 Hopes may be rising that price pressures may finally be easing, but investors risk missing the fact that not all inflation cycles are alike.
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) The record-low euro-zone unemployment rate of 6.5% in October is likely to be as good as it gets for the region’s labour market. But the rise in unemployment from here will probably be small. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) The 1.4% m/m drop in house prices in November was far larger than anyone expected, raising the risk that prices fall more rapidly and further in response to high mortgage rates than we forecast. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed further significant downgrades for total returns in 2022 and 2023, as higher interest rates have boosted yields and a looming recession cuts rental growth next... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) Euro-zone inflation may now be past its peak but with the core measure unchanged in November and set to remain well above 2% next year, we expect the ECB to hike rates by 50bp or 75bp in December. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations near turning point as property yields spike Despite a sharp rise in property yields, renewed increases in alternative asset yields led to a further deterioration in European property valuations in Q3. All markets were overvalued except for... 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower Bank Rate path won’t prevent repricing As we now think Bank Rate will peak at 4.50% next year as opposed to 5.00%, mortgage rates will be a bit lower in 2023. But ultimately, the surge in mortgage rates over the past year will leave the... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may not fall much more given outlook for inflation Although Bund yields have fallen today amid early signs that inflation may have peaked in the euro-zone, we don’t expect those yields to continue to drop sharply given only a gradual decline in core... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (November) November’s fall in headline inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone headline rate will come in lower than we had anticipated when it is published tomorrow, and is now close to a peak... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian prime office rents to fall next year The sharp fall in employment we expect next year will drag on Italian office rents. While prime rents should hold up better than the wider market as the shift to the best quality space continues, we... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
