Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary fending off another crisis, weak activity data The decision by Hungary’s government to abandon its cap on petrol and diesel prices this week adds to what has already been a sharp withdrawal of government support in recent months. Hungary’s economy... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Retail recession drags on despite World Cup With retail sales volumes in November likely to have remained a little below their pre-pandemic level and 4.0% below their level at the start of the year, for retailers the recession is well underway... 9th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth strong; recession underway Policymakers may have taken some heart from the latest data published by Indeed which suggests that wage growth has started to edge down. However, wage growth is still very strong and other measures... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Lending to property will soon go into reverse The rise in net lending to real estate over the past couple of months may reflect some investors looking to buy commercial property assets at discounted prices. But a repeat of the mid-2000s, when... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB set to hike by 50bp; more to come next year There is a case for the ECB to raise interest rates by another 75bp next week, but we suspect that it will instead slow the pace to 50bp as policy is getting closer to “neutral”. This would mean... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yet A shift from the 75 basis point hike in interest rates in November to a 50 basis point rise, from 3.00% to 3.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 15th December would show that the Monetary Policy... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) The RICS survey confirmed that there were widespread house price falls in November. Surveyors expect a further drop in prices and slowdown in transactions ahead, in line with our forecasts. 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) German industrial production once again held up better than expected in October. But this resilience was driven partly by a recovery in construction which tends to be volatile. We still expect high... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The largest monthly fall in in the Halifax house price index since October 2008 confirms that the house price correction that we forecast has begun. While mortgage rates have fallen back somewhat in... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) As expected, the headline CIPS construction index retreated in November as falling demand outweighed the benefit of easing prices and an increase in the availability of contractors. As the recession... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our forecasts: slightly shallower recession We are nudging up our euro-zone GDP forecast slightly to reflect the small improvement in the economic data in recent months and an easing of the energy crisis. Nonetheless, we still think euro-zone... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings – A pivotal year for policy ends 1671116400 The last big central bank decisions of 2022 resulted in another batch of hefty rate hikes – if smaller than recent – but also provided important signals about the direction of policymaking in the c
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail spending in October is consistent with our view that – notwithstanding the slight uptick in some business surveys recently – the economy is entering recession. With... 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
