Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Weak growth, signs inflation easing, estimating r* A deluge of data this week has underlined how weak economic activity is in the euro-zone but offers some hope that core inflation may be easing. Meanwhile, we do not expect the ECB’s new analysis of... 31st January 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor won’t “kickstart” growth, but LT outlook rosy While we doubt the Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth” will lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters, at the margin her strategy of growing the supply side of... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany states, France, Spain Flash HICP (Jan. 2025) 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jan. 2025) Although the muted 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices in January was slightly worse than expected, it is not too surprising given the rise in quoted mortgage rates at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see Bund yields falling this year even if UST yields don’t Even though we forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2025 close to its current level, we anticipate that the 10-year Bund yield will fall over the rest of the year as the ECB, unlike the Fed... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey supports our call of a modest UK commercial property recovery Concerns about the impact of the Budget, coupled with higher interest rates, led to a moderation in commercial property demand according to the Q4 RICS commercial survey. Capital value expectations... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Politics take centre stage on both sides of the Atlantic Political opposition to the EU’s stringent climate policy has been growing, particularly given the backdrop of the bloc’s struggling industrial sector. The pressure on politicians to dilute Europe’s... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has much further to go It’s clear that after cutting its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today, the ECB expects to reduce rates further in the coming months. We think that weak growth and inflation will mean that the Bank has... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European CRE sentiment too weak to set recovery alight in 2025 The latest RICS survey showed further improvement in occupier and investor demand in Europe. However, with the uptick in sentiment only small, the market looks to be struggling to gain momentum... 30th January 2025 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Does the weak economy create a case for cutting rates faster? The Bank of England will probably strike a balance between the recent weak news on activity and the stronger news on price pressures by cutting interest rates by a “gradual” 25 basis points (bps)... 30th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (January 2024) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today came as no surprise and the accompanying statement implies that more cuts are coming, as is widely anticipated. We think the Bank will... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2024) & Unemployment (Dec.) The stagnation in euro-zone GDP in Q4 supports our view that the region’s economic prospects are worse than most think. We expect this to prompt the ECB to cut interest rates by more this year than is... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 24) 30th January 2025 · 1 min read
