Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (15th Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Regional office market rents to outperform London Office rental growth in London and RoUK was similar in the third quarter. But as the recession takes hold London firms will have a greater incentive, and opportunity, to make savings from the shift to... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail better placed as yields rise Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) Industrial production in the euro-zone declined by 2.0% m/m in October with all the largest economies showing a reduction in output. While output held up better than we had expected in Q3, this is... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Inflation has peaked, but how far will it fall? The Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that CPI inflation has peaked. But with activity holding up and wage growth still strengthening, the 2.0% inflation target is still a long way... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update “CBAM” edging closer to existence While today’s agreement on the EU’s “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” leaves vital questions unanswered, it is a step towards the valid goal of making users pay for the emissions that they consume... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q3 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that demand was resilient to rising mortgage rates at first. Loan-to-income ratios crept up despite rising financing costs. But with interest rates on... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) Coming on the back of yesterday’s larger-than-expected rise in GDP in October, today’s news that the labour market is loosening only gradually and wage growth continues to accelerate might further... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in DM government bond is mostly behind us With nominal bond yields having fallen considerably over the past month, we think there is now less scope for developed market government bonds to rally over the next couple of years. 12th December 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Oct.) The 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in October was mostly due to the rebound after September’s extra bank holiday. Even so, the surprisingly strong rise could tilt the Bank of England towards another bumper... 12th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Values to fall sharply as yields rise and recession hits Higher interest rates have already resulted in a sharp property repricing in 2022. And with valuations still highly stretched and rental prospects weaker given the imminent recession, we think values... 9th December 2022 · 33 mins read
