Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation at 70%, lira tumbling – but still CBRT holds Despite the backdrop of inflation at 70% and the lira falling by falling by 10% against the dollar this month, Turkey’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 14.00% today. So long as President... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Stagflation stalking the markets If we are right in expecting inflationary pressure to stay strong even as the economy gets dangerously close to a recession, then the prices of gilts and UK equities will probably fall further over... 26th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Answers to your questions on the ECB We held a Drop-In today to discuss our views on the ECB and what the chances are of a further hawkish surprise in the coming weeks. (You can see an on-demand recording here.) This Update answers... 24th May 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising interest costs add to pressure on EZ households We estimate that euro-zone households’ debt interest payments will quadruple as a share of income over the next couple of years as the ECB raises its policy rate. This will put yet further strain on... 24th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May) The flash PMI survey for May suggests that economic growth has slowed to a crawl and that the risk of a recession has not gone away. Even so, weakness in the economy doesn’t seem to be filtering into... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) The small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI in May suggests that activity is holding up better than we had feared. But the services rebound is likely to run out of steam amid high inflation and the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value gains set to slow The recovery continued in the Scandinavian and Swiss economies and their property markets in Q1. It was a record first quarter for investment in Scandinavia. And annual capital value growth was robust... 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Apr.) The economic wind that has recently been blowing the public finances to undershoot forecasts adds more pressure on the Chancellor to launch in the coming weeks a big package of measures to help... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Risk of tighter agricultural export restrictions growing The recent tightening of export restrictions has been limiting the supply of staple agricultural commodities available to global markets and pushing up prices. In light of the ban on wheat exports... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default In this Update, we answer a number of key questions on Russia’s public finances, including the likelihood of a sovereign default, the impact of higher energy prices and the collapse of the economy on... 23rd May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The Ifo survey for May suggests that activity in Germany may be holding up a little better than we had feared. But the headline Business Climate Index is still consistent with GDP contracting in year... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q2 and the effects of the war in Ukraine will remain a key headwind over the coming months. That said, we... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May) The small increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in May left it only slightly higher than its low point at the start of the pandemic. With confidence extremely low and real incomes squeezed by high... 20th May 2022 · 2 mins read
