Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The softer-than-expected inflation reading in Russia in December, of 11.9% y/y, is likely to be followed by further sharp falls in the coming months towards 4% as last year’s surge in prices passes... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making the case for euro-zone equities While euro-zone equities face some meaningful short-term headwinds which threaten their recent run of outperformance, we still expect them to fare better than US equities over the next couple of years... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession delayed not cancelled It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than... 13th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic outlook improving, but still poor The euro-zone economy held up better than we anticipated in Q4 and the outlook for the coming quarters has improved. But with high inflation set to continue to weigh on household incomes and the drag... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 contraction may have been avoided The euro-zone economy held up a bit better than we expected at the end of last year. On balance, the data point to GDP flat-lining or contracting only slightly in Q4. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch offices unlikely to fall over EPC cliff-edge The recent commencement of stricter office EPC legislation in the Netherlands has raised concerns that Dutch office valuations may be on the edge of a regulatory precipice, given the large proportion... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Nov.) The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy did not contract in Q4 and is not in recession. Even so, it is too soon to conclude the economy... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed the first contraction in workloads since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020. Weakening demand and rising financing costs are cutting profits and... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB tightening starting to take effect November’s money and credit data showed that the effects of tighter ECB policy were only just starting to be felt. So while some of the recent economic data have been a bit stronger than expected, the... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher interest costs pose downside risks to values Real estate equity prices pointed to around a 10% fall in euro-zone all-property capital values in 2022 and we expect a similar size fall this year. But while the latest REIT data show landlords were... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French pension reform could be agreed despite strikes Reform of the French pension system is notoriously difficult and it is possible that the proposals unveiled yesterday will be watered down or even withdrawn completely. However, on balance, we think... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Worst case scenarios avoided, but outlook still poor There has been a further slight improvement in prospects for the euro-zone in recent weeks. Business surveys suggest that activity is no longer contracting sharply, headline inflation seems to be past... 10th January 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property faces a tough year After a stellar first six months, rising interest rates and a slowing economy brought commercial property returns crashing down in the second half of 2022. All-property total returns are therefore set... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Shift to a bigger state won’t curtail GDP growth While the shift towards higher taxes and spending after the pandemic appears to be here to stay, there is little to suggest an expanded state would curtail GDP growth. But without supply-side reforms... 10th January 2023 · 5 mins read
