Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for exiting from negative interest rates promptly is now irrefutable. The ECB looks sure to confirm next week that it... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP in Q1 provides a solid base for year-on-year growth rates throughout 2022. But with surveys heading south, and signs of stagnation in the euro-zone in... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2022) Turkey’s economy performed better than expected in Q1, with GDP rising by 1.2% q/q, as the boost to net trade from the lira’s collapse late last year more than offset the blow to household spending... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (May) German and Spanish inflation data for May provide more ammunition for those who will argue at next week’s monetary policy meeting that the ECB should exit negative interest rates promptly, rather than... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in May, but there were some encouraging signs that industrial sentiment has started to improve and that price... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for May was almost unchanged from April, well below its pre-Ukraine war level and consistent with economic activity stagnating in Q2. The survey also suggests that... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Survey indicates that the outlook for this year is stronger than expected three months ago, though after 2022 forecasts were more pessimistic. Our view remains more downbeat... 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics What the Chancellor gives, the BoE will have to take away The new fiscal stimulus announced by the Chancellor this week puts more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates into restrictive territory. As result of this and other recent... 27th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Jumbo rate hikes looming into sight The change which we made to our ECB forecast this week has prompted us bring forward some of the rate hikes in our profile for the Scandinavian central banks and even the SNB, all of which we think... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Struggling economy will not put ECB off 50bp hike Data released this week suggest that there are upside risks to our forecast for GDP to contract in Q2, but the economy still looks set to perform very poorly this year. And we doubt that this weak... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update PEPP redemptions no substitute for spread-fighting tool The ECB’s guidance that it can use PEPP reinvestments to contain bond spreads has a few big limitations. If the forthcoming interest rate hikes cause spreads to blow out, the ECB will either need to... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chancellor supports household incomes, but boosts inflation The extra financial support for households announced by the Chancellor today will help millions of households cope better with the cost of living crisis. But it won’t relieve all the pain and may mean... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do recession risks threaten euro-zone rental growth? The risks of a recession in the euro-zone have risen. While we think a contraction will be narrowly avoided, this will remain a concern for property investors already facing the prospect of higher... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to follow Fed’s lead with 50bp hike With inflationary pressures remaining intense and policymakers keen to get the deposit rate out of negative territory, we now think the ECB is most likely to raise rates by 50bp in July and by 125bp... 26th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the house price consensus still so bullish? The consensus among professional forecasters is that house price growth will slow but remain positive over the coming years, as a robust jobs market prevents forced sales. But even in the absence of... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
