Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in May lends support to our forecast that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening later this month. A 50bp hike in the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish ECB much more concerning for BTPs than Bunds While the yields of 10-year government bonds have risen across the euro-zone after the ECB sounded particularly hawkish at its meeting today, we suspect that further upward pressure on “core” yields... 9th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to drag on EU steel prices Softer demand for steel in Europe has dragged prices lower recently, despite production in the region being constrained by high production costs. We expect prices to fall a little further to €900 per... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No majority would hinder, not upend, Macron’s plans The latest polls for this month’s legislative elections in France raise the possibility that Macron’s party and allies may not win a majority. But even so, support from the centre-right might avoid a... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to raise rates, and without a new backstop Today’s policy statement and press conference sets the stage for the ECB to raise interest rates by 75bp by September and we expect that to be followed by two more hikes this year. The Bank’s failure... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Joining the 50bps club The further tightening in the labour market, the additional loosening in fiscal policy and more evidence that the weaker activity outlook is not reducing price and wage expectations lead us to believe... 9th June 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Office sector joins industrial as overvalued in Q1 Higher alternative asset yields drove a sharp deterioration in European property valuations in Q1. Valuation scores declined across all sectors, though retail remained in fair value territory. With... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London office supply to remain strong The latest London Crane Survey showed office space under construction rose marginally, but will increase further as supply rises. This supports our view that increased supply over the next two years... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The sharp fall in Russian inflation in May to 17.1% y/y suggests that inflation may have already peaked and price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months. This will give the central... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Activity holding up and price pressures strengthening Real economic growth is slowing rather than collapsing in the face of the twin drags of higher inflation and rising interest rates. The Chancellor’s latest fiscal handout will help support GDP in the... 8th June 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May) The second consecutive fall in the construction PMI in May points to a sustained slowdown in development activity. And with the new orders balance easing and optimism of future demand declining, a... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP in Q1 was in large part down to the huge increase in Ireland, where the GDP data are notoriously unreliable. So the data aren’t as good as they look. And we still... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (April) April’s increase in industrial output reversed only a fraction of the decline in March and shows that high energy prices, the Ukraine war and ongoing supply shortages are still having a major impact... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tailwinds fading, headwinds building With some important exceptions, including the German manufacturing sector, economic activity seems to have held up a little better than we had feared so far in Q2. We don’t think this will last. The... 7th June 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Looming ECB rate hikes give SNB plenty to ponder We forecast the SNB to largely shadow ECB rate hikes over the next 18 months or so, albeit allowing the interest rate differential with the euro-zone to widen from 25bps at present to 50bps by end... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
