Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon Israel’s labour market has tightened significantly in recent months and while there is so far little sign of a burst of wage pressure coming through, this is likely to be in the pipeline and feed... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (June) A second consecutive small monthly rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in June means it was still well below its level at the start of the year, and pointing to a recession. The... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Apr./May) The tentative evidence that the recent weakening in economic activity is filtering through into a slightly looser labour market may push the Bank of England a little closer to raising interest rates... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s rebound has further to run Greece has already made a more complete recovery from the pandemic than most of its peers and the short-term outlook still looks relatively good. The country is less exposed to Russia-Ukraine risks... 13th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the Government’s housing reforms? The Prime Minister last week announced a trio of policies aimed at reversing the decline in home ownership since the financial crisis. We doubt the schemes will make a big difference, although more... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) Turkey’s activity figures for April suggest that the economy has held up well since last year’s currency crisis, but robust activity has added to inflation pressures and contributed to the widening of... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in April wasn’t as weak as it looks, but it nonetheless increases the chances that the economy is slipping into recession. While this is unlikely to prevent the Bank of... 13th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New, higher forecasts for EZ bond yields and spreads We are raising our forecasts for euro-zone 10-year government bond yields and “peripheral” spreads to reflect the ECB’s further hawkish shift as well as its apparent unwillingness to commit to a... 10th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB tightening unlikely to cause house price crash Tighter ECB policy could cause house prices in the euro-zone to fall, but we think that a housing crash will be avoided even in the Netherlands where the risks are largest. BoE Preview Drop-In (14th... 10th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls The Turkish lira remained under pressure this week and the raft of policy measures announced on Thursday show that officials are doing whatever they can to avoid interest rate hikes. Capital controls... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR lowers interest rates back to pre-war levels The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a 150bp interest rate cut to 9.50% today as its focus continued to shift away from inflation risks towards supporting the economy. We think further reductions... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Farewell, Cecilia Skingsley; rate hikes & house prices We expect house prices to fall in Sweden and Norway this year as rising interest rates push up borrowing costs. But the peak-to-trough declines are likely to be smaller than those in Canada, Australia... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly High inflation will keep ECB hawks in charge this year Euro-zone inflation is likely to remain higher than the ECB expects over the rest of this year. That will keep the balance of opinion on the Bank’s Governing Council tilted firmly in favour of the... 10th June 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Boris using the economy to fight back, BoE to hike by 50bps By deploying economic policies and Brexit battles in the fight for his political life, Boris Johnson is inadvertently asking the Bank of England to work harder to quash inflation. As it happens, we... 10th June 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in May lends support to our forecast that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening later this month. A 50bp hike in the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
