Energy Update Europe’s gas supply looking increasingly fragile Russia’s decision to once again cut supplies to Europe makes the region’s gas supply look increasingly precarious. The move will slow regional stock builds and keep prices historically high. 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Demand for labour to remain strong in the euro-zone Strong demand for labour, not a lack of potential workers, has driven the euro-zone’s unemployment rate to a record low. Employment gains have been biggest in public services and we expect demand for... 16th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to step up pace of tightening next week We expect the Norges Bank to step up the pace of tightening at its policy meeting next Thursday (23 rd June) with a 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, and to indicate that it will probably raise interest rates... 16th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics BoE falling behind the Fed, but hints it may speed up By raising interest rates by 25bps (basis points) today, from 1.00% to 1.25%, rather than by 50bps or the 75bps the Fed announced last night, we think the Bank of England is putting too much weight on... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q1) The acceleration in euro-zone wage growth at the start of the year is consistent with the timelier data already published and the message from pay negotiations. Against a backdrop of high inflation... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB steals a march on the ECB After the excitement of yesterday’s ECB emergency meeting and 75bp hike by the US Fed, the SNB kept its end up by unexpectedly raising its policy rate by 50bps this morning – its first rate rise since... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the sharp falls in the lira have much further to run The Turkish lira is once again depreciating sharply against the US dollar and we expect this to continue. We revise our forecasts for the lira and pencil in further substantial weakness by the end of... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pressure is on for ECB spread-fighting tool in July The ECB’s press release following its unscheduled meeting fell short of announcing a fleshed out spread-fighting tool that could provide a permanent solution to the problem. Flexible PEPP... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The increase in industrial output in April only partially reversed the decline in March and shows that the economic fallout from the Ukraine war is still holding back production. With survey data... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB emergency meeting (June 2022) News that the ECB Governing Council is holding an emergency meeting today shows that policymakers are taking the threat of rising peripheral yields more seriously than they were last Thursday at their... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs appear to have eased over the past month, but rapidly tightening external financing conditions mean that this won’t last for long. Large outflows already seem to have pushed... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spreads will keep widening before ECB takes action We suspect that the spread between 10-year Italian and German government bonds would need to widen by another 100bp or so, to around 3.5%, to force the ECB to make a stronger formal statement of... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 22) The detailed quarterly mortgage lending data from the Bank of England confirmed that the squeeze on lenders margins intensified at the start of the year, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
