UK Economics Weekly Fall in confidence not enough to rule out aggressive rate hikes Signs that business confidence has started to ease may provide the Monetary Policy Committee with some reassurance that firms' pricing power will soon soften. But the danger that bigger increases in... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shifts up gears but rate “summit” is in sight While the Riksbank stepped up the pace of tightening this week, the fact that Swedish households are highly sensitive to rate hikes, and the likelihood that weakening activity will soon reduce the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading for a hawkish 25bp hike Despite President Lagarde’s hawkish language at Sintra and inflation once again coming in higher than expected in June, we think the ECB will raise rates by “only” 25bp later this month. However, with... 1st July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) The further big increase in the euro-zone inflation rate came despite a substantial fall in Germany that was driven by regulatory changes, and shows that underlying price pressures remain... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The more muted rise in unsecured borrowing in May suggests the cost of living crisis and recent plunge in consumer confidence are prompting households to exercise a bit more caution. That adds to... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May.) Lending activity in the commercial property sector cooled in May, consistent with the weaker investment data seen in recent months. Looking ahead, we expect rising interest rates and high property... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals remained relatively weak in May supporting our view that higher interest rates are now starting to curb activity. As mortgage rates are set to rise further over the next year, this... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity to fall as economic realities bite After a solid start to the year, investment activity showed signs of cooling during the second quarter. We think that stretched valuations, an increasingly negative financing gap and economic... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Property yields to move higher Weaker economic activity and higher interest rates as a consequence of the war in Ukraine will weigh on property performance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Shifts in investor sentiment and a... 30th June 2022 · 18 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in May to a new record low reaffirms the strength of the region’s labour market despite the apparent softening of activity. That will underpin an... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far Ukrainian refugees have boosted labour forces and consumer spending across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the outbreak of the war, but this could prove short-lived if the conflict remains... 30th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to front-load rate hikes and accelerate “QT” As expected, this morning’s 50bp interest rate hike by the Riksbank, to +0.75% saw it join the ranks of the “50bp club”. But while policymakers resisted the urge to join “Club Fed” with a 75bp hike... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) Monthly house price inflation slowed in June to its lowest since last September according to the Nationwide, while the annual rate continued to edge lower. That is consistent with our view of steady... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q1 Final) The final Q1 GDP data leave households looking a bit more vulnerable to the big fall in real incomes that’s going to hit in Q2 and Q3. Although GDP and consumer spending won’t fall as far as real... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest Russian data for May suggest that activity, having declined sharply after Western sanctions were imposed in March, has started to stabilise. Some sectors of manufacturing have benefited... 29th June 2022 · 3 mins read
