Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Milan office rent growth to undershoot the euro-zone

Milan office take-up has held up well in recent quarters, but this has not translated into stronger prime rental growth. With the outlook for jobs growth pointing to a slowdown in take-up while...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jul. 2024)

The economy stagnated in July, but that doesn’t mean the UK is on the cusp of another recession and we still think the stickiness of inflation will keep the Bank on hold in September.

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we are more optimistic on rental growth

Our rental growth forecasts for the industrial and retail sectors are notably above the consensus, particularly over the next couple of years. That primarily reflects our relatively optimistic...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run

Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jul. 2024)

The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. But we doubt this will be enough to prompt a back-to-back 25...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet

In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees...

6th September 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Sep 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Manufacturing recession possible, full recession unlikely

We don’t think the lingering concerns about the health of the US economy mean that the chances of the UK economy slipping back into recession are much higher. Instead, the fading drag from higher...

6th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole

France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance

Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the...

6th September 2024 · 7 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts

The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President...

6th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Industrial Production (Jul.)

The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical...

6th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Aug. 2024)

The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in August supports our view that the fall in the Nationwide house price index in the same month was a blip and isn’t the start of...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read