Europe Commercial Property Focus

Regional divide in euro-zone office yield outlook

Taking stock of euro-zone office yields after their recent stabilisation reveals a convergence across the region, with spreads between the northern markets and the historically higher-risk southern...

17th September 2024 · 15 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The fine line between delivering fiscal prudence and growth

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s “Fiscal risks and sustainability report" showed that if left unchecked the public debt to GDP ratio would spiral from 98% now to 274% by the mid-2070s. But there...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Should institutions be worried about Renters’ Rights?

By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed...

13th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here

While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

October cut possible, but December still more likely

Post-meeting comments by ECB policymakers suggest that the bar for another rate cut in October is high, with December the most likely option. Meanwhile, the ECB’s new GDP projections still look too...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

BoE Watch

Slow pace of rate cuts initially, before quickening next year

We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone industry will continue to struggle

A large part of the decline in euro-zone industry over recent years shown by the monthly data appears to be due to mismeasurement. Nevertheless, the sector is struggling with a loss of international...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit

Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Inflation keeps falling more quickly than Norges Bank’s forecasts but policymakers will be uneasy about the renewed weakening of the krone. We expect them to repeat that the policy rate will be...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB likely to ease policy gradually

There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the policy statement and press conference were largely as expected and do not change our view that...

12th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Focus

The post-election UK economic landscape

The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain...

12th September 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (September 2024)

There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Otherwise, the policy statement is largely as expected and does not change our view that the ECB will probably...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2024)

Rising demand points to faster house price growth August’s RICS survey provided further evidence that housing demand is picking up in response to the recent falls in mortgage rates. What’s more, our...

12th September 2024 · 3 mins read